TDF 2/2004 - A space age or a (new) stone age
Newsletter TDF 2/2004 - A space age or a (new) stone age
Dear Co-Planetaries,
The title here above is the one of a paper, written by Marco C. Bernasconi
and Arthur Woods, appeared in Space News - Oct. 2- 8, 1995. I am using it
because it seems extremely appropriate to me, in describing the current
situation.
The upsurge in the price of oil, to nearly 50 dollars per barrel (double the
middle price fixed by OPEC), involves, for the planetary economy, a "tax" of
50 billion dollars per month (600 billion per year), to be paid to the real
world government: the oil monopoly. As in the 1973 big oil crisis, the
different commentators disagree. The prevailing reason, for the
unprecedented rise of the black gold price, is attributed by some to the
current political-military situation in the Middle-East, by others to the
shrinking of oil reserves thmselves. Whatever is the main reason, a lot of
substantial differences exist, with regard to the 1973 crisis. That crisis
was an entirely man-made crisis, which nevertheless had the effect of
igniting reflection on the limited resources of this planet. The Countries
of the OPEC cartel decided to raise the price of the raw oil, in two months,
to 12 dollars per barrel. Besides, the 1973 oil crisis ended the period of
great industrial development which followed the 1945 Bretton-Woods
agreements. Historical sources state that, at that time, the United States
didn't oppose the OPEC decision, considering the bigger incomes for Saudi
Arabia and Iran, due to the increase of the oil price, as a kind of indirect
financing for the armament of such Countries. But then the world was still
split in two blocks, neither of which was interested in making the price
fall, for military reasons. Today the situation is very different: one of
the supposed contenders (the Al Qa'edist terrorism) seems to be driven by a
philosophy of endless death; it continues to sacrifice its own young people,
and its ideological objective is anything but clear. Besides, the history of
such terrorism decidedly appears to have two interlinked connections - to
some of the oil lobbysts, as well as to the Middle-East situation. The West
seems by now to have accepted the military facts of life, and to have
decided to look for other solutions, rather than the use of its own
technological superiority. As if to show that lessons in civilization and
humanism can come from any quarter, during these days the "Grand Ayatollah"
Al Sistani deserved the title of "Grand", rendered to him by the media: he
personally went, risking his own life, to the hottest point of the Iraqi
conflict. He went to stop the killings, and to speak. And he has achieved,
in half a day, what great armies and overwhelming military might did not
manage to accomplish in many months. How many other political or religious
heads will dare to do the same, and thus take the moral high ground? The
occupaying powers, nevertheless, didn't learn anything, and keep on reacting
to the terrorism by other terror, bombs and destruction, without saving
women and children. The total blindness of such a deal should be self
evident: we could achieve the favor of a people (vs. terrosim) only if we
would be able to show a moral temper, a nobilty and a capability to protect
the good peple and put the bad ones in conditions not to harm, things which
war and destruction have nothing to do with.
But the theater of the conflict, today, extends beyond the Middle-East
region, though this last remains the region where fires of war and
instability mostly ignite. As we comment in other articles (The first
Chinese manned space mission, China in Space), a great machine has recently
turned on its motors: the industrial development of the biggest Asian
Countries: China and India. This machine needs fuel and raw materials, in
hardly calculable quantity. In the face of such demands, the oil resources
(and not only the oil ones) of the planet will really start to be scarce.
And here is the second point of difference between the present crisis and
that of 1973. Obviously, too, the alarm bell of 1973 could have started
useful lines of development, but then the only resultant vector was that of
the geocentricity, of the Ecological Movement! This Movement, facing the
problem of the finiteness of terrestrial resources, simply preached the
reduction of the human species and, in its most radical wings, even its
extinction. The current situation also shows clearly (at last) the
obsolescence of such those intellectual tendencies, which we can justly call
Reductionist and anti-Human. There are, on this same planet, great
populations, that are not at all afflicted by the self-destructive sense of
guilt as are we post-industrial people: they in the final analysis are
simply claiming their share of development and good living standards. And
this, as we now finally realise, is primarily a matter of energy and raw
materials. We are not empowered to grant or deny technological know-how:
know-how nowadays is diffused to the East as well as the West. They can
achieve in a short time the same and more than we can, because they are more
motivated. This is the true challenge that the post-industrial West is
facing. Beware, gentlemen; the stake is extremely high: the future of our
whole civilization depends upon the answer that we will be able to give. The
choices, for us Western people, are at least four:
a) to fight militarily the development of the Eastern peoples;
b) to wait passively, to be overcome and colonized by the new emerging
political-economic power;
c) to help as far as possible such development;
d) to look for new spaces and new resources of development, for us and for
them, beyond the borders of this planet.
Left to themselves, I'm afraid that the American and European political
leaderships would choose, respectively, however absurd, solutions a) and b).
As has certainly happened on other occasions, the biggest problem for people
who foresee great future events, is that of passing on their own foresight
those who lack the same intuition. It is difficult to find useful precedents
in history for the totally new. Many will shrug their shoulders in
resignation: another conflict, and then? The history of civilization is
studded with conflicts. This inactivity is the greatest danger, that we must
culturally and politically avoid. Let's put it so: you have a very small and
pretty house, one day two champions of Wrestling come to find you, they
drink your whiskey, and they start to quarrel. What is your principal worry?
"Please, go outside to fight..." you suggest to them, in the most prudent
option. (in fact there is a real danger that they will get angry with you ).
The damage that two (or more) combatants can inflict depends directly on the
dimensions of the combatants themselves and on the scale of the theater of
the conflict itself. Now, the contenders' sizes (East and West) are such,
that, if also the contest remained at the economic-industrial level, our
actual cosmic residence would not be enough, and it would result in
irreparable devastation. We would face an unprecedented crisis of resources
and an environmental crisis. Such crisis could be enough to set civilization
back several millennia. If then the conflict degenerated to a military level
(very possible, considering the political trends that still prevail), I
don't see how our civilization (and perhaps also our kind) could survive.
It is surely difficult to bring to their senses some drunk wrestling
champions (and I apologize with the category, that I have sinisterly used
for my example!). It will be a good precautionary measure to remove any
"alcoholics" (i.e. any religious fundamentalisms), and even to choose our
leaders more wisely. Nevertheless, are we able (as a civilization) to bet
all our chances on the unlikely eventuality that some reasonable politicians
will appear? History until now suggests a pessimistic view.
The solution d) is therefore an imperative, and it must be pursued at any
cost, in any measure. If the last resort is to be that the combatants at
least left the house to pursue their quarrel, the technological and
industrial possibilities of it must exist.
And it could be that, faced with the abundance of resources and energy that
they will find just outside their home, suddenly the contestants'
drunkenness will pass, a beautiful smile will appear on their faces, and the
conflict will move onto more solid (and very less bloody) ground.
I will also try to discuss this and other topics, in the interview that
David Livingston will make with me Sunday 3 October, in his Space Show.
Due to all the above reasons, the initiative of independent and courageus
people is quite essential. Therefore I look very much forward to the next
september 29th, and wish the best to SpaceShipOne and Scaled Composites,
when they will try the first flight to qualify for the X-Prize! Their
success will be a breath of hope, and fresh air, in the current heavy
war-and-terrorism weather.
TDF 2/2004
The summary of TDF 2/2004 is very solid; I would be attempted to add other
articles, but so making this number would never issue! The today's cut
therefore includes, among others, the followings articles:
- A corpse is not a good client, by A. Autino -
http://www.tdf.it/2004/cad_eng.htm ... It is this matter of killing that
shall come to an end. In the killing, as in the torture, there's only the
regression to the natural ferocity, to the bestial instincts. Once people
overcome that border, they don't have respect of themselves anymore:
therefore, there is not then such a great difference between the killing and
the torture. Whoever really wishes to contribute educating terrestrials to
democracy, will have to be stronger, but of a firstly moral strength, not
only military. The awareness of who is able to measure his strength to
prevent the injustices, stopping well before the killing, the mutilations,
the tortures. The strength that immediately communicates to the opponents
that we intend to take care of our children as well as of their children,
and that we won't allow anymore anybody to kill, to torture, to make
themselves to explode....
- The tyranny of oil, by A. Autino - http://www.tdf.it/2004/oil_eng.htm ...
The speculative upsurge of the oil' price, in this 2004 summer, subsequently
shows the extreme criticality of the energy problem. All the experts foresee
an increasing demand of energy and raw resources. It begins therefore to
appear, in its whole dramaticity, the problem of the finiteness of the
resources of our (by now unic) planet...
- The failure of the space agencies, by A. Autino -
http://www.tdf.it/2004/age_eng_old.htm ... Since the Apollo mission in 1969,
agencies were not able to decrease the cost to orbit of one kg terrestrial
material of 1 cent; the quality standards are growing exponentially, but the
space systems quality is decreasing (2 shuttles on 5 lost, Ariane 5 failures
are 21%, vs. 2,6% of Ariane 4); the ScaledComposites's SpaceShipOne made the
same work of NASA's X15 with only 30 millions Dollars, ...
- New frontiers of tourism: the space, by Pierluigi Polignano
http://www.tdf.it/2004/st_eng.htm - Shimizu Organization wants to build
lunar laboratories and hotels using local raw materials. Nishimatsu
Construction Corporation has planned to build a mega-resort, with the shape
of three giant shells: Escargot City, snail city. Obayashi Corporation, on
the contrary, is planning a self-sufficient lunar farm, able to host 10.000
people, with fields, gardens and orchards for the living.
And don't forget (even if is not easy, this period) to:
Aim high!
Adriano Autino
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