Re: IPO Rotary Rocket? . . . And Other Rumormongering ;)


From Sam Coniglio <spaceman@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date Tue, 18 Jan 2000 21:29:38 -0800

Rotary Rocket goes IPO????  That would be impressive, but how much would
the resulting stock be worth?  Here are today's closings for some aerospace
companies:

Space Dev $1 3/32 a share
Boeing $45 a share
Lockheed Martin $20 a share
Orbital Sciences Corporation $17 9/16 a share
SpaceHab  $5 7/8 a share
Loral Space and Communications $21 7/8 a share

The prices are certainly cheaper than the Internet stocks, but how do you
get investors interested?

Rotary has had several successful tests of their Roton ATV, so that could
get investors' attention. I doubt they could go public right now because
they had such a hard time getting funding in the first place.  Rotary's
current funding is coming from private individuals who have the vision to
see the future markets.  These few investors can burn a few million and
wait years for their Return On Investment (ROI), but the vast majority of
investors like the quick turnaround of the Internet companies.

I am working at an Internet company, and it is very interesting to see the
hurdles you have go through in preparing for IPO.  My company wants at
least one quarter of revenue before they even think about the plunge,
despite the fact that we were over-subscribed (too many investors, not
enough shares) in our fourth round of financing.

Rotary may have to wait until they have a sub-orbital test vehicle flying
before they go IPO.  Investors need confidence before they invest. This
applies to all of the rocket start-ups.

Also, keep in mind the licensing nightmare placed upon the aerospace
industry in 1999.  Everything needs to be approved by the US State
Department. (Read Dr. Joan Johnson-Freese's excellent article, "Alice in
Licenseland," in this week's Space News.)
Revenue from 1999 launches were cut in half compared to 1998 revenue.  Why
would anyone invest in an industry that is being strangled by the Federal
Government's Cold War paranoia?

But there are always other ways...

Sam

>Anyone have any good ideas (rumors) etc., about new information
>concerning a possible IPO by Rotary Rocket?  Of course, this is one
>company that everyone seems to have been waiting with baited breath to
>go "public" practically since its first days as a corporation, but
>anyway. . .
>
>Any guesses at least what it might open at, etc., if or when it does?
>
>When do you think a good time for it to go public would be (if/when it
>would)?\
>
>Any other relavent info. would be appreciated.
>
>Thanks.
>
>
>
>P.S.  Finally, I was just curious, do any of you know anything about
>possible groups out there which would buy stocks as a group (some people
>get together and basically buy stocks, started as a "hobby" by some,
>especially groups of women, and then expanded and has taken on
>business-like features), in this area (space launch vehicle companies,
>etc.)?  I disremember the exact term for it, but I'm sure you can glean
>what I mean from this??
>
>Where could I find these?  Get in contact with them?  Etc.?  Thanks
>again.
>
>
>
>
>
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