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This paper discusses whether [some] asteroids and comets are "celestial bodies", immovable land-like territorial extensions that cannot be appropriated under present regulations - or floating movable things, orebodies ferrae naturae capable of being captured and reduced into private ownership. Several theories are examined, such as the employment of the spatialist and functionalist approaches, or the use of the criterion of actual movability from orbit by human action.
The present paper weighs the different advantages and disadvantages of each of the above schools of thought, and attempts new approaches based on original findings, such as the analogy between the legal status of asteroids and icebergs.
Ethical issues have become increasingly important to the modern business community. Respected professional organizations, as well as successful companies, have already adopted formalized codes of ethics and standards. Within these professional organizations, all members and employees adhere to their respective corporate ethical codes. Similar to terrestrial businesses, the commercial space industry must develop its own code of ethics. Although advanced space commercialization may still be a few years away from economic reality, now is the time to establish guidelines for corporate ethics and business practices. This formative period provides a unique opportunity to ensure a future conduct that will facilitate ethical and profitable space commercialization. In addition, now is the time to help businesses understand that by adopting an ethical approach to space commercialization, they are enhancing their companies' profit potential.
A successful code of ethics should not only be voluntary, it must facilitate the work and expansion of individual businesses, rather than hinder their efforts toward providing products and services. A properly designed code of ethics ensures the development of space commerce unfettered by government created barriers. This code of ethics encourages and supports businesses oriented toward off-Earth development. Indeed, one of the inherent risks facing expansion of the commercial space industry is that, if the industry does not develop its own effective and supportive professional code of ethics, government imposed regulations or laws will fill the void. Should this occur, the creation of new barriers to space commerce is likely, making future development far more difficult. This code seeks to help businesses avoid the imposition of new barriers to space commerce as well as make new commercial business ventures easier to develop. The proposed code is also capable of evolving with input from those advocating and planning commercial space ventures. Consideration of this code should begin the process of critical thinking to move decision makers beyond the "bottom line" or shortsighted technical and engineering concerns. Though the bottom line is extremely important to all businesses and especially to those engaging in space development, it should not be the sole focus of the company. By paying attention to other equally important aspects of the business, including personnel, management, ethics, and strategy, the company helps to ensure a bottom line that draws strength from all of its business operations.
As acceptance and use of this proposed code of ethics grows within the industry, modifications will be necessary to accommodate the variety of businesses entering space commerce. Furthermore, the terminology used in this code is consistent with that which is widely used today within the terrestrial business community. This uniformity will help to assure that the code will not be perceived as foreign in nature, potentially restrictive, or threatening. Companies adopting this code of ethics will find less resistance to their space development plans, not only in the United States, but also from non-space faring nations. Less resistance means the company can commit more of its resources to implementing its business plans rather than addressing political or regulatory issues. Commercial space companies accepting and refining this code demonstrate industry leadership and an understanding that will serve future generations living, working and playing in space. Space business companies following the ethical guidelines suggested here bring the development of an advanced space economy that much closer to reality.
With declining public support, and declining public budgets for government space activities, national space industries are facing difficulties in continuing their traditional R & D-oriented activities. Although it is understood within the space industry that cost reduction is a key for their business through competition between both communication satellite makers and launch service providers, the results of their efforts to date are still far from encouraging other potential customers who are obliged to follow strict business principles even in space.
In this paper, we have selected two commercial activities, tourism and satellite solar power stations, of which the space transportation requirements are realistically predictable in economic terms. Space tourism is considered as part of the tourism industry - a global business which has driven the development of the civilian aerospace industry since WW2, and which seems large enough to continue to support the aerospace industry in the post cold-war era. Even though the scale of space tourism activities may be much smaller than the airline industry, it is assumed that similar operating concepts will be applied to these new services. The business of satellite solar power stations considered here is to build solar power satellites in low equatorial orbits and sell microwave power to ground-based electric utility companies. The upper limit of the costs for the system will be determined by the price competition of other electricity sources.
The cost targets for space tourism and for space solar power are very close to each other, about 10,000 Yen per 1 kg mass of payload to low Earth orbit. Thus the space industry's current efforts to reduce launch costs by 90% are not sufficient to motivate these new industries to develop in space. A specific effort, targetted at achieving this cost level for space transportation is essential for the space industry to become genuinely commercial and so repay the enormous resources it has used to date.
The paper starts with a set of major require-ments for a space tourism vehicle and discusses major vehicle options proposed for this purpose. It seems that the requirements can be met best with a Ballistic SSTO Vehicle which has the additional advantage of lowest development cost compared to other launch vehicle options - important for a commercial development venture. The BETA Ballistic Reusable Vehicle Concept is characterized by the plug nozzle cluster engine configuration where the plug nozzle serves also as base plate and re-entry heat shield. In this case no athmospheric turn maneuver is required ( as in case of the front-entry Delta-Clipper DC-Y concept). In our specific case for space tourism this mode has the avantage that the forces at launch and re-entry are in exactly the same direction, easing passenger seating arrangements. The second basic advantage is the large available volume on top of the vehicle providing ample space for passenger accomodation, visibility and volume for zero-g experience (free floating), one of the major passenger mission requirements. An adequate passenger cabin design for 100 passengers is presented, as well as the modern BETA-STV Concept with its mass allocations.
Due to the growing international recognition of the academic activities on space tourism by the Japanese Rocket Society (JRS) with the vehicle's name of Kankoh-maru, the Transportation Research Committee has decided to study safety standard for designing space tour vehicles as a third phase research program. The reason is clear why the establishment of the safety standard is necessary. There must be clear promises to space line companies that this kind of commercial transportation system is fundamentally safe in design for passengers. Thus the "spaceworthiness" is to be provided now.
The Japanese aviation regulations have been established by the Civil Aircraft Bureau of the Ministry of Transportation in 1952. The third phase study has begun to review the airworthiness that are specified for the airplane category type T and the rotorcraft category type TA/TB. Then the applicability to space tour vehicles has been assessed. Since the space tour vehicles are operated beyond the regimes in speed and altitudes of subsonic and supersonic aircraft, the certification regulations are to be tailored, modified and added with new issues of environmental conditions during exo-atmospheric and reentry flight.
Concerning safety, there is a fundamental difference in design between conventional rockets and space tour vehicles. Since the expendable rockets are designed based on the piling of the reliability of onboard components, the launch success is expected by the figure of probability. If an accident occurred, the rocket will be destroyed by the command from ground for the safety of residents. On the other hand, deterministic safety is required for the space tour vehicles not only by the reliability approach of redundant system but also by the abort operation for the unexpected subsystem failure. The space tour vehicles primary consider the safety of passengers and will never be destroyed.
The Transportation Research Committee has employed an idea of "integrated certification process" that the space tour vehicles are to be designed with "built-in" safety margins based on the existing commercial aircraft's fail-safe design rule. It must be the shortest way of realizing commercial space tour to inherit the property of the aircraft's safety philosophy.
The design of solar power satellites (SPS) or a lunar power system (LPS) involves beaming energy to Earth, perhaps in the form of microwaves. Unfortunately, the magnitude of such projects has discouraged the planning of demonstrations. In order to understand the physical requirements that tend to push the size of a space power system upward, it is necessary to consider the physics of wireless power transmission, or power beaming.
The concept of generating solar power in space for wireless transmission to receivers on the ground has been discussed at some length during the past three decades. During the first decades of the new century, global demand for electrical power is projected to grow dramatically - perhaps doubling from 12 terawatts to more than 24 terawatts. Achieving this power growth while managing environmental impacts effectively is a cruical international challenge. During 1995-1996, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) conducted a far-reaching re-examination of the technologies, systems concepts and terrestrial markets that might be involved in future space solar power (SSP) systems. The principal objective of this "fresh look" study was to determine whether a solar power satellite (SPS) and associated systems could be defined that could deliver energy into terrestrial electrical power grids at prices equal to or below ground alternatives in a variety of markets, do so without major environmental drawbacks, and which could be developed at a fraction of the initial investment projected for the SPS Reference System of the late 1970s.
Working with a major focus on emerging nations - the study examined 5 different markets and about 30 different SPS concepts, ranging from the 1979 SPS Reference Concept defined by the US Department of Energy and NASA to very advanced concepts involving technologies that have not yet been validated in the laboratory. Following a preliminary assessment of technical and economic risks and projected costs, 7 SSP system architectures and 4 specific SPS concepts were chosen for employing in greater depth using a comprehensive, end-to-end systems analysis employing a desktop computer modeling tool that was developed for the study. Several innovative concepts were defined and a variety of new technology applications considered. A key ground rule to achieve initial cost goals was to avoid wherever possible the design, development, test and evaluation costs associated with SSP-unique infrastructure. Three architectures in particular were identified as promising: a sunsynchronous low Earth orbit (LEO) constellation, a middle Earth orbit (MEO) multiple-inclination constellation, and one or more stand-alone geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) SPS serving single, dedicated ground sites. This paper presents a summary of the results of the "Fresh Look" study, including architectures, systems concepts and technologies.
Since the first proposals for single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) launch vehicles in the late 1940s, the chief criticism of the concept has remained the need for high mass fractions (ratio of propellant weight to loaded weight less payload) required for the concepts to be practical. Whether reusable or expendable, in many critics' minds the impossibility of SSTO remains tied to this issue. The purpose of this analysis is to dispel the concern over the issue of mass fraction. We propose to do this by means of a thought experiment.
The Futron Analysis of Space Concepts Enabled by New Transportation (ASCENT) Study was a major undertaking on the part of NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and Futron Corporation designed to provide the best possible estimates of global launch vehicle demand for the next twenty years via the research, analysis and forecasting of current and future space markets and applications. It is a reassessment, with significant improvements in modeling approach and data collection methods, of the findings of the Commercial Space Transportation Study (CSTS) of a decade ago (which was the previous milestone space market study). The ASCENT Study was performed over a 20-month period from June 2001 to January 2003. This report describes the major findings from the Study.
I know how to get the U.S. permanently into space. Write me a check for a billion dollars, give me a letter of credit for a second billion I probably won't have to spend, and get out of the way. I'll take the money and vanish into the Mojave desert, China Lake for preference, Edwards Air Force Base if 1 must; and in about four years I'll have a Single Stage to Orbit savable as well as recoverable and reusable spacecraft capable of putting about ten thousand pounds into orbit at costs of about five times the cost of the fuel the flight takes. Call it Space Ship Experimental, or SSX for short.
This paper presents some thoughts and a methodical approach to the strategic planning of large government projects that takes into account the dynamic development of global problems. Given that an overarching strategic intent is in place and budgetary resources are limited, the methods described herein allow its user to generate and evaluate a set of project proposals according to their individual problem solving potential. In a final step, one is able to select those proposals that are preferable for further planning. Rather than generating detailed programs that are hard to implement in a dynamic environment, the method described herein is only modeling the priorities of different project alternatives. This is less detailed as the plans that result from a classic strategic planning approach, yet is highly usable as a roadmap for implementation. The most important advantage of this approach is its suitability for a dynamic planning with inherent learning cycles that can easily be adapted to dynamic changes in the planning environment. Since change is a well-known phenomenon in space program planning, a paradigm shift towards more flexible and adaptable ways of planning seems to be required.
The general public are strongly hoping for some inspiring initiatives to be announced in the year 2000, to give them confidence that their political leaders are abreast of the rapid changes occurring in the world today, and well prepared to face the major challenges expected in the following decades. Ensuring future supplies of clean energy on a scale many times larger than today is perhaps the greatest problem, and is deeply interconnected with the problems of environmental pollution, economic growth, population growth and unemployment.
It is increasingly recognised that, as the technologies for utilising solar energy in its various forms continue to improve, they will contribute increasingly to world energy use. One of the candidate ways of using solar power on a large scale is to transmit power generated continuously from sunlight in space by orbiting satellites to the Earth's surface using microwave beams. This system was proposed more than 30 years ago, and since then the various technologies required have been developed to a point of readiness.
The start of a first pilot plant project to demonstrate the delivery of solar-generated microwave power from satellites in Earth orbit to users living on Earth would be an exciting, publicly visible demonstration of a new way of tapping the limitless, clean solar energy available to us. Such a real demonstration will also be far more convincing proof to engineers and managers from the electricity generation industry that the technology of this system is now mature than theoretical explanations or experiments performed in space.
A 10MW solar power satellite (SPS) pilot plant is being designed in Japan to operate in orbit 1100 km above the equator and provide the first ever supply of electric power for thousands of homes in some of the poorest regions of the Earth. In doing so it will also generate a mass of data on the system's operation, and provide a test-bed that electricity supply companies will be able to use to perform a range of experiments that they need to be convinced of the system's feasibility.
To date the authors have made field research visits to ten developing countries along the equator, meeting government officials and researchers, and visiting candidate sites for microwave power receiving antennas (rectennas) up to 1 km or more in diameter. All the countries visited have expressed keen interest in participating in the project, and more detailed case studies of each candidate rectenna site are being planned. It is highly desirable that the technologically more advanced countries should collaborate with the less developed countries near the equator to bring this project to reality.
The purpose of this research is to provide an evaluation of the potential demand for space tourism within the United Kingdom (U.K).
To promote further research and development into space tourism, there exists the necessity to estimate the global potential demand for space tourism. In an attempt to begin this estimation, two key surveys were conducted in Japan and North America. Following these studies, the request for further surveys within Europe stimulated the initiation of this research within the U.K.
The resultant data arising from this research demonstrates that a significant potential demand for space tourism does exist. Overall, 34.7 % of all respondents stated the desire to undertake a space trip, with a further 23.6 % undecided. Further analysis promote the assumption that the combination of these two percentages represent more accurately the current latent demand for space tourism within the U.K.
Investigation of the influences on demand established that the majority (40 %) of respondents were only prepared to spend £700 to travel into space. However, almost 12 % (which represents 3 ½ million people) would pay £8,500, the equivalence of the predicted cost for a mass space tourism ticket. This research also supports the notion that the common desire is to stay in space for prolonged periods of time, with viewing Earth as the key motivation to do so.
The extent to which Britain may contribute to the future global space tourism industry still remains uncertain. As space tourism exists only a contemporary concept, the respondents possessed very limited knowledge. Therefore, as interest and information becomes more prevalent, it is suggested that the overall level of demand will increase. To further evaluate the potential U.K space tourism market, additional surveys are essential in order to clarify the findings from this research.
The ISAS solar power satellite working group is working on a concept of an SPS strawman model for demonstration of electric power supply to customers at the earliest opportunity. The SPS is modularized, so that each unit can be launched by a commercial launcher to an equatorial low earth orbit where it is assembled automatically. The satellite can supply electric power by microwave to rectennas at every pass. Based on this model, technological and prograrnatic characteristics of a small SPS are discussed.
One of the uses that has been proposed for fully reusable launch vehicles is "space tourism", the making of short visits to low Earth orbit by fare-paying passengers. This seems to offer the potential to generate a large commercial market, of the order of tens of launches per day, which could amortize the development cost of a new generation of reusable launch vehicles. Recently there has been a considerable increase in research concerning this possibility, with an international symposium being held in Bremen, Germany in March 1997, a session being held on the subject for the first time at the 1997 IAF Congress, the Space Transportation Association in Washington DC publishing a report on it in collaboration with NASA, and the AIAA holding a workshop on the subject in January 1998, among other activities.
Once businesses start to offer travel services to low Earth orbit, it is expected that orbiting "hotels" will be developed to enable guests to enjoy a variety of entertainments in Earth orbit. One feature of such hotels will be sports centers providing guests the opportunity to enjoy moving about freely in weightlessness, or "zero gravity". This paper considers one possible facility in such a sports center, namely a rotating, artificial-gravity swimming pool.
Barriers to space enterprise not only pose serious risks to the advancement of space commerce, but they discourage fresh ideas, enthusiasm, and capital. Many of these barriers originate with United States policies, laws, and regulations which have been evolving since the late 1960s. This paper, therefore, discusses the various barriers to space enterprise resulting from key policy, legal, and regulatory items. In addition, the Office of Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation, the office that regulates commercial launches in the U.S, is highlighted in the discussion. The Strom Thurmond National Defense Act is also examined as it is responsible for several of the more recent barriers to space commerce. Not only does this act affect important business aspects of American satellite companies, but university students and commercial space companies are adversely impacted, especially in their use of the low-cost Russian Dniepr launcher.
Conflicts within U.S. government agencies and Congress are discussed as barriers to space commerce result from the actions of these organizations. Financial and market uncertainties are also discussed as they make commercial space ventures more risky and are certainly barriers to commercial space development. Misperceptions, many of which originate from official U.S. policies as well as statements made by authorities and leaders in the commercial space industry are examined as well.
In addition to the discussion regarding the existing barriers to space commerce, this paper points out that a potential barrier to space enterprise that may arise from the lack of business ethics in the commercial space industry. If an ethical approach to space development is not established, the commercial space industry runs the risk of attracting excessive government regulation which will certainly be a barrier to the industry.
This paper concludes by offering some suggestions for minimizing the effect of the existing barriers and for eliminating future barriers. A recommendation is also offered to those in the commercial space industry to supervise their own conduct when engaging in space commerce to avoid unnecessary government regulation.
In outer space, the sun always shines brightly. No clouds block the solar rays, and there is no nighttime. Solar collectors mounted on an orbiting satellite would thus generate power 24 hours per day, 365 days per year. If this power could be relayed to earth, then the world's energy problems might be solved forever.
Many proposals for utilization of solar system resources for the benefit of Earth have been published during the three decades of the "space age", but to date they remain unrealized. In general this is not because they are technically unrealistic, but because they are commercially unattractive, and therefore depend on government funding. This is at best unreliable, and at worst seriously distorts the allocation of resources.
It is proposed that providing a commercial transportation service to low Earth orbit facilities for fare-paying passengers could generate much higher traffic levels than satellite launches, sufficient to justify the commercial development of fully reusable launch vehicles. Evidence that such services would be popular, and the potential for cost reduction in space system development are considered. A number of other issues that must be resolved, such as safety and legal questions, are discussed.
In addition to a number of social benefits, commercial passenger space travel seems to have the potential to serve as a catalyst for launch cost reduction. This is the key to exploiting the space frontier for the benefit of Earth, through making new space projects such as solar energy from space economically attractive.
In recent years a number of countries in Asia, notably Japan, Korea and China, have achieved sustained economic growth rates of some 10% per year over periods of several years, which are historically unprecedented in the European/American tradition. At such rapid growth rates, countries can progress from "developing" to "advanced" within a generation or two. This new pattern of development offers new hope for the majority of the world population who still live in poverty.
However, in order to achieve such economic growth, very large energy resources will be required. In order for most of the world population to have a reasonable standard of living, energy sources are required that will be capable of expansion at a rate of more than 100 GW per year through much of the next century. In recent years the ever-increasing scale of human industrial activities has started to threaten the global environment. Consequently the quality of human life in the future will increasingly depend on utilising energy sources that are more environmentally benign than those used by the older industrialised nations during their development.
Electric energy transmitted from space to Earth has the potential to provide environmentally clean energy on a very large scale, and with the potential for very rapid growth. This paper considers the potential and prospects of satellite solar power stations (SPS) in this context.
The single-stage reusable Earth-to-Orbit Vehicle was originally targeted by Eugen Saenger already in 1938, but according to the present and foreseeable future,winged vehicles with horizontal landing will always require two stages of different design. This concept is at present under prime consideration by NASA as a US Space Shuttle.
The only technical solution for a single-stage vehicle is the ballistic approach, which would combine techniques and technology of todays launch vehicles, of the Apollo Capsule and of the Lunar Lander Vehicle. This means less development risk and less development effort, beside the fact of concentrating development on only one vehicle instead of two and avoiding all problems of vehicle interfaces, staging, etc.
Progress of structure and propulsion technology during the last years would allow the realization of a single-stage vehicle with no greater performance risk than the two-stage winged space shuttle.
I am pleased to talk about my own experiences of being involved in various technology development projects. However, I am wondering why I am here to comment on the space tourism study to be conducted by the Japanese Rocket Society. I just guess I am expected to talk about the secret of making money to start a new business developing advanced technology.
The US government's Commercial Space Act of 1998 and commitment to commercialise the International Space Station's operations have changed the direction of space development in the post-cold-war world definitively. During 1998 also the feasibility and great economic potential of space travel by the general public was acknowledged in publications by NASA, AIAA and the Japanese Keidanren. However, crewed space activities are all taxpayer-funded, primarily for scientific research; they have involved only a few hundred people traveling to space to date; and those involved have no experience of commercial passenger service operations.
By contrast, aviation is a global industry, largely commercial, involving the range of activities from engineering design to marketing, and serving more than 1 billion passengers/year. Aviation has very high safety levels developed over decades of experience of carrying billions of passengers. Furthermore, the aviation industry also has extensive experience of operating rocket-powered piloted vehicles: during the 1950s several countries operated such vehicles sufficiently frequently to develop routine operations, maintenance and repair procedures.
Consequently, in order to develop safe and profitable passenger travel services to, from and in space, people, companies and organisations with experience of space activities have a great deal to gain from collaboration with all parts of the aviation industry. Due to the potential economic value of this development, and the high cost to taxpayers of space activities today, governments should take steps to start this collaboration as soon as possible.
McDonnell Douglas appreciates the opportunity afforded by the Office of the Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation to comment on the development of Certification Standards for New Reusable Launch Vehicles.
During the summer of 1993 a market research questionnaire designed to investigate the potential demand for orbital tourism was completed by more than 3000 people from all age groups in Japan - the first such market research in the world. Using the results of this survey, a number of analyses are being performed. From the prices that people say they would pay to visit space, a demand curve can be derived, showing the level of demand that could be expected at different price-levels. The possible pattern of demand growth as the range of commercial space tourism services grows is also considered. The level of investment in the development of reusable passenger-carrying launch vehicles that could be commercially justified by this market is also estimated, and the assumptions made are discussed.
A general concept of a solar power satellite (SPS) strawman developed by the ISAS SPS Working Group has been summarized together with descriptions about the basic requirements featuring the design as well as a brief remark on the present status of technology maturity and engineering readiness for this new energy system.
With space tourism and law it is a typical situation. Every time somebody develops a vision and plans to make it feasible, it is just a question of time until lawyers show up to complicate the situation. It is inherent to law, that it is lacking behind innovations in some respect. Complex undertakings require a legal framework to manage its complexity. Space tourism promises to become a multi-billion-dollar-business, and it is certainly a challenge to create or arrange a legal environment for this undertaking. This short paper tries to touch on some of the essential topics regarding space tourism under the viewpoint of public international law.
The concept of space tourism has been under discussion since the 1950's. In the mid-1950's, the Hayden Planetarium offered to take reservations for people interested in flying to the planets: over 250,000 wrote in to reserve their place. In the late 1960's, following the release of the Stanley Kubrick / Arthur C. Clarke movie "2001: A Space Odyssey", PanAm accepted 90,000 reservations for people wishing to fly to the moon. From this and from more recent market research, it is clear that the idea of space tourism is very popular with the general public.
In 1998 NASA published the report "General Public Space Travel and Tourism" (1) which endorses the feasibility of space tourism, and foresees it growing into a larger commercial space activity than all space activities today. Also in 1998 the American Institute of Astronautics and Aeronautics (AIAA) published the report "International Cooperation in Space" of which pages 25-30 were devoted to the subject of public space travel, and concluded: "In view of its great potential, public space travel should be viewed as the next large, new area of commercial space activity" (2). Today, at least two companies are accepting advance reservations to fly passengers on sub-orbital flights to space and thereby to earn their "astronaut wings".
The main obstacle facing space tourism services has been, and remains, that the vehicles required to fly passengers to and from space on a regular, safe and low-cost basis do not yet exist. Today, those wishing to fly to space as a passenger have only two vehicles to choose from, the U.S. Space Shuttle or the Russian Soyuz, of which only the Soyuz is available for commercial hire.
For many years it has been recognized that the technology required for sub-orbital space travel is not a barrier; much greater difficulties lie in the raising of capital investment and the development of a suitable regulatory structure. The X PRIZE Competition has been created to foster a mechanism which has historically made capital available, namely sponsorship of competitors in a race (similar to the America's Cup yacht races and Grand Prix motor races). The X PRIZE Foundation is in the final stages of raising the funds to offer a $10 million prize for the first team to fly repeatedly to an altitude of 100 km, and 14 teams have registered to compete. However, a number of regulatory matters remain to be resolved before this activity can lead on to commercial passenger space travel services. This paper focuses on the issue of creating an appropriate regulatory structure to allow X PRIZE derived vehicles to carry passenger traffic.
SUMMARY - The construction of a near-term solar power satellite (SPS) has been proposed, in the form of a satellite in equatorial low Earth orbit transmitting up to 10 Mw of radio-frequency (rf) power at 2.45 GHz, with the objective of demonstrating the generation of useful electric power on Earth using available space technologies and launch services. This paper examines the main factors that must be considered in the design of the ground segment (i.e. the rectennas and related power-conditioning equipment) for such a system, which will become important research facilities, of interest to electric utilities in every county.
Propulsion systems for an SSTO (single-stage-to-orbit) type of space vehicle to be used for space tourism have been studied. Bell nozzle engines and liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen propellants were chosen for this study to meet the targets of life time, reliability and maintenance frequencies assumed to be required analogous to present-day airline operations. Conceptual design and system analysis were made in terms of engine arrangement in the vehicle and intact abort capability, and a system was conceptualized.
In future, as orbiting hotels become more sophisticated more advanced facilities will be developed. One direction of such development will be to include larger rooms for guests to experience activities in "zero gravity", as it is popularly known. The paper considers the design of a small gymnasium that might be the flrst of such sports centers to be built and used in orbit.
SPS2000 is a strawman model of solar power satellites (SPS) (1) with microwave power output of 10 MW, which was proposed by the SPS working group of the Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS) (2, 3). The primary objective of SPS2000 research is to show whether SPS could be realized with the present technology and to find out technical problems. The conceptual study of SPS2000 is now being carried out under the assumption that the first construction will be started before the beginning of the twenty first century. SPS2000 transforms the DC power generated by huge solar arrays to microwave power at 2.45 GHz and transmits it to the rectennas on the earth while it moves from west to east in an equatorial low earth orbit (LEO) of 1100 km altitude. Transmission is possible when the rectenna can be in the field of view of the controllable microwave beam from SPS2000. Therefore, SPS2000 should always detect the location of the rectenna and direct a microwave beam toward the rectenna. In order to perform the beam scan, the spacetenna should have a function of a phased-array antenna (4, 5). We discuss a configuration of spacetenna of SPS2000 and an electrical design of its feeding network for power transmission antenna elements. Furthermore, we describe the conceptual design of SPS2000 followed by the configuration of the spacetenna and the feeding network. On the basis of the spacetenna proposed above, we design a functional system model of SPS2000 as a demonstration model and construct microwave circuits employing silicon (Si) semiconductors since there are many advantages in Si technology compared with others in terms of cost reduction, robustness of the system and extraterrestrial resources.
Thank you for inviting me here today.
I have been asked to speak to you about "Dreams" with respect to "Making the Space Future Happen."
Earlier, Mike asked me if I would speak about "space tourism," and I agreed to do so.
Subsequently, as I thought more about the professional interests of the International Academy of Astronautics, I decided to speak about two other Dreams as well, all of which, in my mind, are related to each other in "Making the Space Future Happen."
This paper presents the results of new study by the author that analyzed the potential market for Public Space Travel (PST), defined a set of optimum launch vehicles for this service, and set up a series of paper businesses to take as few as 100 and as many as 1,000,000 people into space annually. To enable the analyses, the study analyzed market surveys done to date and de-rived a "most likely" market elasticity model.
Three fully reusable transportation vehicles were designed for this application, sized for 20, 60, and 180 passengers capacity per launch. A launch rate increasing from 100 to 6,000 launches per year was adopted in order to accommodate the eventual demands for the number of passengers. These vehicles do not require technologies beyond those that will be proven within 2 years on the X-33, but must be designed for high reusability and reliability.
A number of paper businesses were defined for PST. They showed that low enough seat prices could be offered to actually enable the large passenger rate required by the market elasticity data. An IRR of 35-55% is achievable by such businesses when carrying 1,000-10,000 persons per year. When the vehicles carried cargo as well as advertising, ticket prices were offset sufficiently that IRR levels of at least 45% were attainable even at 1,000,000 passengers per year. What is more, these figures were achievable even when charging less than 30 $/Kg for carrying cargo into space. Thus PST could be highly synergistic with an SPS business.
Thus a business can be created that generates over $30 Billion profit annually for an investment of $ 7.6 B. In addition a smaller scale business using a Kistler-type vehicle was de-signed in order to begin services incrementally, at passenger rates of 100-2,000 per year. It is shown that such smaller scale business can also be economically viable, with IRR of 25-35% readily attainable with investment under $ 2 B.
As part of the work currently in progress for the "SPS 2000" solar power satellite pilot-plant system design project, field research is now under way in countries around the equator. The objectives of this fieldwork are to identify potential sites for receiving antennas, and to establish a network of researchers in these countries to collaborate on the design of the system. Although many details of the satellite design have yet to be finalized, this equatorial field research has become necessary since, like any energy system, the requirements of the intended users are an essential input to the system design. In addition, it is not possible to evaluate the overall costs and benefits of the project without detailed plans for the ground systems and their utilization. At present plans for rectennas in each country are at an early stage, but as work progresses the role of the equatorial countries in the project is expected to grow.
The space industry is approaching a major turning-point. Within twenty years, and possibly within ten, space transportation will finally 'come of age' with the development and operation of fully reusable launch vehicles. These will reduce the cost of access to space by 90% initially, and eventually by 99%. As a result of the timing of system development cycles, Europe is in a position to take the lead in this evolution, with important economic and political benefits. However, if current plans are followed, Europe will miss this opportunity, and it will be exploited by other countries. In order to avoid this, greater weight must be given to commercial considerations in Europe's space planning.
The evolution of the cruise trade is explored for information that may be useful for development of a space tourism industry. The popularity of taking a cruise for either a vacation or adventure has experienced a boom in recent years producing a passenger annual growth rate of nearly nine percent since 1970. Key circumstances, happenings and people are examined for making cruising the current choice for millions of tourists per year. A description of a modern day cruise ship and its itinerary along with the profiles of passengers who sail them is provided. In addition, methods employed to reduce acquisition and operating costs are analyzed that allow affordable pricing to all potential cruisers as well as the marketing techniques used to bring them aboard. What was once a luxury for only those few who could afford such extravagance, is now available to all including those of modest income. The application of this information may be used for further space tourism studies.
Candidate functions of Earth orbiting facilities are reviewed. Short-term habitation in low Earth orbit (LEO) is proposed as the best means to spread the Overview Effect -- with its benefits of global perspective, environmental awareness and motivation for peace -- throughout the human species. Ventures to make the transportation and accommodation of tourists in LEO economically self-sustaining are shown to be feasible and startable, as well as amenable to economies of scale with market growth analogous to commercial air transport. Initial and subsequent markets are identified. Fundamental requirements for appropriate orbital facilities are outlined and illustrated.
Because space tourism will play an important role in space exploration, cost simulations were done for second stage space travel, i.e. a short stay at a space station hotel. We have tried to clarify conditions that must be met to successfully operate a hotel in space. The costs to transport construction materials into space is emphasized.
In both China and Indonesia electricity demand is expected to grow by several hundred % over coming decades. In order to supply this it will be necessary to use sources of electric power that are environmentally clean. Security of future power supply also favours the use of a variety of different energy sources rather than over-dependence on a few.
The construction and operation of "rectenna" power stations for reception of microwave power beams delivered from large orbiting solar-powered satellites is a potential candidate for a new-generation power supply system in the future (1). This would benefit countries with natural advantages of large area and low labour costs. Thus, if such a system is developed, it could in principle become an attractive new source of electric power in both China and Indonesia - provided that the price charged per unit of energy in the incoming beams is competitive.
S-commerce, or S-business, is the use of space by a company to provide products and services, both terrestrial and extraterrestrial. Space commerce is presently made up of companies that manufacture and o perate launch vehicles, satellites and related ground infrastructure, including spaceports, teleports and ground terminal/receiver equipment. These products and services serve commercial, civil and military customers. Total revenues of the world space indu stry (excluding the countries of the former Soviet Union and China) currently totals approximately US$100 billion annually. In the future, space commerce will continue to see revenue growth while expanding to include many companies and industries that are not traditionally thought of as users of space. The terrestrial companies will begin to incorporate the use of space resources into the development and use of their services and products. The markets focused on during this phase of the study were selected based on an assessment that they might offer near term products or services and be sufficiently large and competitive to tackle the risks and invest in space.
The Orbiting Commercial/Industrial Process & Applications Platform (CIPAP), refered to herein as GEODE, is a truly viable concept that genuinely accommodates the requirements of industrial-scale and realistic cost. It will be a manned space production platform that supports proprietary processes (the linchpin of commerce & profit) and is intended for use by ALL Commercial and Academic sectors.
This document is the second of two volumes that present the results of the Space Act Cooperative Space Travel and Tourism study conducted by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Space Transportation Association during the past 3 yr.
Volume 1 contains the study's fundamental findings from the beginning of the study until the publication was released, and volume 2 the detailed findings of the multiday workshop conducted at Georgetown University, Washington, DC. Please note that the members of each of the workshop sections conducted their studies independent of each other.
In the nature of things, there is some overlap in interest between some of the sections. Because the general public space travel and tourism area is so broad and novel, a decision was made not to eliminate any redundancies-the full range of section-by-section findings and recommendations is presented. Because of the differing backgrounds of the members of each section and their different study approaches, the form of each section's report differs somewhat from that of the others.
After more than 30 years of research into the possibility of delivering environmentally benign, solar-generated microwave power from satellites in Earth orbit to dedicated receiving antennas on Earth, a pilot plant is now needed to demonstrate its feasibility. This will be far more convincing to engineers from the electricity generation industry that the technology of this system is mature than theoretical explanations or technology demonstrations in space.
A 10MW solar power satellite (SPS) pilot plant is being designed in Japan that will operate in orbit 1100 km above the equator and provide the first supply of electric power for thousands of homes among the poorest regions of the Earth. In doing so it will also generate a wealth of data on SPS system operations, and provide a test-bed that electricity supply companies will be able to use to perform a range of experiments that they need to be convinced of the system's feasibility.
To date the authors have made field research visits to ten developing countries along the equator, meeting government officials and researchers, and visiting candidate sites for microwave power receiving antennas (rectennas) of up to about 1 km in diameter. All the countries visited have expressed keen interest in participating in the project, and more detailed case studies of each candidate rectenna site are being planned. It is highly desirable from many points of view that the economically more advanced countries should collaborate with the less developed countries near the equator to bring this project to reality.
My passion about this springs from the way that large-scale space tourism leads to space infrastructure that enables broader national goals -- such as a return to the Moon and the exploration of Mars. This is spelled out in my written testimony, which I would like to submit now.
Mr. Chairman, Mr. Gordon and distinguished members of the Subcommittee, I am honored to have been asked to testify before you today. I hope that my testimony will bring a unique perspective with regard to the United States space program and our ability to work cooperatively with Russia and our other partners in the International Space Station (ISS).
It is my understanding that during today's hearing the members of the subcommittee are interested in reviewing the issues and opportunities for flying nonprofessional astronauts in space, the appropriate governmental role for supporting the nascent space tourism industry, use of the Space Shuttle and International Space Station for tourism, safety and training criteria for space tourists and the potential commercial market for space tourism.
More specifically, I have been asked to address the following:
I am happy to address all of the aforementioned topics, but do ask that testimony that goes beyond a retelling of my personal experience be considered that of a non-expert in human space flight.
I want to thank the committee for inviting me to submit testimony on space policy in general and space tourism in particular. This is a very broad topic about which books have and are being written. This fall, for example, I will publish a book entitled Space: The Free-Market Frontier, based on a Cato Institute conference earlier this year.
In this discussion I will highlight certain points that I should be useful for policy makers who wish to see space become a realm opened not only to a handful of government astronauts but to all individuals seeking adventure, discovery, knowledge and beauty.
Historical precursors and analogs are often invoked in an attempt to forecast or justify commercial space endeavors. This is especially true when space advocates attempt to make the case of getting government out of space and letting private enterprise take over.
However, history reveals that government participation in a technologically-based activity has benefits as well as disadvantages. Therefore, it may be well to proceed with caution when invoking historical examples as justifications. This calls for occasional sanity checks, particularly with regard to the current attempt to commercialize space activities. A cursory look at some of the historic precursors may be of value to those involved in commercializing space activities. Keep in mind that the record shows that once a system is put into practice it rarely changed and then only with great difficulty, travail, and often negative consequences.
If the long-awaited exploitation of space is to occur in an economical and affordable fashion, inexpensive and reliable means to transport cargoo and people to and from LEO will be required in the 21st Century. The author has studied the vertical-takeoff-and-landing (VTOL) single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) launch vehicle concept for use as a LEO transport for more than two decades. VTOL SSTO represents one feasible solution to the problem of low cost space transportation.
Building on work conducted in the 1960s by Bono and in the early 1970s by the Chrysler Corporation, Gomersall and others, the author conceived the Phoenix concept in 1972 as a means to provide inexpensive access to space. The basic concept survived into the 1980s and was refined to the degree that the vehicle could be built with existing technology and prove suitable for use by non-astronaut passengers.
This paper will review the history of the VTOL SSTO concept and the Phoenix designs. It will also discuss the role the Phoenix concept had in stimulating consideration of the single-stage-to-orbit approach by the U.S. Government in on-going SSTO concept studies. These studies are currently expected to lead to prototype hardware development aimed at demonstrating the SSTO approach by 1995-97 in the form of the McDonnell-Douglas DC-Y.
The possibility of an orbiting or lunar hotel is discussed. It is suggested that when space scientists make it physically feasible to establish hotels in space and to transport people, the hotel industry will meet the challenge.
It is generally assumed that substantial improvements of technology are required for the next generation of (reusable) launch vehicles. However, this is not necessarily true, even though technology development programs have been performed or started in Europe (Sänger, FESTIP, FLTP, Astra), the USA (NASP-, X-33-, X-34-, SLI-Programs) and Japan. The new technologies required depend very much on the launch VEHICLE CONCEPT envisioned. Therefore, an early assessment and selection of an RLV System is required. There are simple and cost-effective reusable launch systems which can be built with presently existing technology (such as the Kistler K-1 which is under development); and there are highly complex winged RLV concepts with combined propulsion requiring a host of new technologies. In this case it is even questionable whether such systems will be cost-efficient at all. The tremendous difference of potential launch vehicle system concepts and the required new technologies do not only have a dramatic effect on development cost and time schedule but also on the later operability (risk and reliability) as well as on the finally achievable reduction of transportation cost into space.
The potential market for space tourism and its development depends not only on the number of people who are willing to travel to space and who have also the money to do so but also on the physical and mental ability for space travel of the interested people.
Thus, human health with respect to space tourism and human factors influencing the number of people interested in space travel will be addressed. Furthermore, some key design aspects of the transportation and space infrastructure, which are related to the health and comfort of the space tourists will be discussed.
Starting with the principle health requirements for space tourists in terms of fitness and age, the potential health risks will be described and evaluated. Key design parameters, which must be taken into account to minimise the risks and maximise the comfort for a space tourist are described and discussed.
The analysis and discussion shows that the majority of the people who are interested in space travel will be able to enjoy their trip providing that the whole space tourism infrastructure (transportation system and space hotels) is designed properly. Potential health risks associated with space tourism are not more severe as for comparable tourist activities.
Historically, space law has developed as required to resolve the problems of the time. Since space activities have been predominantly governmental activities to date, most space law is public law. In future, as non-governmental activities in space increase, the need for private space law will increase. For reasons discussed below, the prospects for growth of private commercial space activities from the late l990s onwards have recently improved, and it can be anticipated that there will be a corresponding growth of interest in commercial space law.
In the past commercial space law has been a subject of controversy due to the deep political disagreement between the two major spacefaring powers. However, the recent historic geopolitical changes in favour of democratic economic systems should make it easier to reach international agreement on space law designed to facilitate the growth of commercial activities.
Like other major areas of technology experiencing rapid progress, such as information technology, law relating to space is a field requiring close cooperation between lawyers and other specialists, as noted for example in (1). This paper is prepared with this intention. It provides a "techno-commercial" view-point of likely developments of commercial space activities in the coming years, with some thoughts on what subjects may need to be considered by space lawyers, and what technical difficulties may be involved.
This author presented a paper entitled Real Property Rights in Outer Space at the 40th Colloquium on the Law of Outer Space, in Turin, Italy (1997). In that article, the author proposed a regime of real property rights for outer space, in the absence of territorial sovereignty. In this paper, the author discusses the goals and expected outcome of the proposed real property regime, including legal, political, military, social and economic implications. Among other things, the author concludes that the proposed regime would make international conflict less likely than a real property regime predicated upon territorial sovereignty, would promote transition of space settlements from Earth-based jurisdiction to self governance, and would promote investment in and settlement of outer space.
This paper examines artificial gravity from the point of view of a person living and moving within a rotating habitat. First, it reviews the literature on comfort conditions for rotation. Next, it analyzes the relative motion of free-falling objects and the apparent slopes of surfaces to reveal the geometry of the effective gravitational field, its variation from Earth-normal gravity, and its variation within the supposed comfort zone for rotation. Finally, it examines the role of gravity in perception psychology and architectural design theory to explore the implications of artificial gravity for habitat design. An architectural grammar comprising wall, floor, and ceiling elements in particular orientations with respect to gravity is common sense. Nevertheless, its application to artificial gravity may be inadequate. Due to Coriolis accelerations and cross-coupled rotations, not only the up-down (radial) but also the east-west (tangential) directions emerge as gravitationally distinct. Inasmuch as architecture is powerless to mask these distinctions, it would do well to help the inhabitants adapt to them. It may do this by providing visual or other cues to assist orientation, as well as by arranging activities to minimize off-axis motion.
Since early 1993 the Japanese Rocket Society (JRS) has been carrying out a "Space Tourism Study Program" to investigate what is required to establish a successful commercial service offering return flights to low Earth orbit for farepaying passengers. The Transportation Research Committee was established under the leadership of Kawasaki Heavy Industries, and published the design of the "Kankoh-maru" reference vehicle in 1994. This committee is now studying the vehicle's development and manufacturing costs. The Business Research Committee was established in 1995 to study other aspects of the subject, including the facilities (both on the ground and in space) required by operating companies, possible business development scenarios, and preparatory activities.
To achieve sustained success in the increasingly competitive world marketplace by developing products and services that customers are willing and able to buy, the U.S. must invest and generate profits in global markets by competing through new products.
In the energy industry sector, a restructuring of this industry may be in the offing, as profound changes on a global scale are being set in motion. These changes include: conservation measures and environmental regulations in developed countries; intolerable living conditions in developing countries where population growth compounds mitigating measures to alleviate these conditions; and globally increasing industrialization and consumption of fossil fuels is potentially placing the Earth's ecology at risk. The linkages between competitive business practices, maintenance of environmentally sound practices, and economic development can be expressed as "ecoefficiency".
Space is believed by some people to provide mankind with the opportunity to expand their activities into limitless growth; space industrialization has been rationalized in this way. However, few studies have examined or certified this forecast quantitatively. We present results obtained by Dr Yamagiwa showing how a World Dynamics model can be modified by introducing extraterrestrial energy and materials to human activities on earth. These figures show the future trend of key factors of human activities, such as population, carbon dioxide and others.
Considerations and assessments for achieving passenger safety, medical aspects, and regulations needed to allow civil airline-type operations, were made extensively together with necessary technical issues.
The efficient utilisation of near-Earth space may be facilitated in future by allocating positions in certain popular low Earth orbits to specified users, as currently occurs in the use of the geostationary Earth orbit (GEO). However, it would be more difficult to reach such agreement on the utilisation of low Earth orbits for a number of reasons.
First, the definition of other Earth orbits than GEO is more complex in physical terms. In particular, spacecraft in such orbits do not remain in constant positions relative to the Earth. Second, there are many mutually exclusive ways of dividing near-Earth space into nonintersecting orbital zones. Consequently it would be necessary not only to adjudicate between different users' demands within any selected orbit, but also to decide between different ways of partitioning near-Earth space into separate zones.
The paper identifies and discusses a number of factors that must be considered in any attempt to make such an allocation, including factors relating to the legal status that such orbits and their users should be accorded, and factors that would be relevant in selecting appropriate values for each of the physical parameters required to define a specific orbit.
Features of liquid hydrogen industry as a key industry to support an aircraft type of space transportation system to be operated for space tourism have been studied on the base of a prospective production model of the space vehicles and an operational concept of space tourism business.
One of the major constraints on the eventual deployment of solar power satellites (SPS's) is the cost of launching large amounts of material into space. Two research strategies have been pursued in order to circumvent this problem. One approach, supported by SSI for many years, is to build the SPS's out of non-terrestrial (particularly lunar) material. The March/April 1993 issue of Update contained an excerpt from Dr. Gerard K. O'Neill's book Technology Edge: Opportunities for America in World Competition, in which he points out that launching a given amount of material from the Moon to high orbit takes less than a twentieth as much energy as launching the same amount of material from the Earth. When other factors, such as atmospheric resistance on the Earth, are accounted for, the savings in launch costs from the Moon versus the Earth may amount to a factor of fifty. In 1985, Space Research Associates completed an SSI-commissioned study, in which the NASA/Department of Energy reference SPS was redesigned to take full advantage of lunar resources . It was shown that approximately 99% of an SPS can consist of lunar materials. The 8% increase in overall mass compared to an SPS built from terrestrial materials was considered to be a relatively small price to pay for this advantage.
One of the most important concerns that we can resolve before this era of space industrialization is in full swing involves the standards that our LEO and lunar-based businesses will project. All of us, not just the businesses that will be operating in LEO and on the Moon, can contribute to the debate. The standards that we export to outer space will be with us for many years to come as our new space economy develops, expands, and eventually seeks independence from its source here on Earth. To have a say in the moral component of a new space economy, we need to be addressing these issues now, and even more important, we need to get the business community involved.
It was stated earlier today by a fellow speaker that the public is confused. I cannot but agree, given that it is generally believed that one can buy land on the moon. Extraterrestrial real estate seemed to be, until recently, the undisputed domain of science-fiction; nowadays, it is a favourite subject of newspaper headlines and of academic debate.
Today, I intend to critically analyse and dismantle the issue of so-called "sale of extraterrestrial real estate", after having outlined some of the trivial claims of celestial bodies ownership.
Interglobal Space Lines, Inc., of Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is pleased to present the results of a brief study, performed for the Sophron Foundation, on the prospects for utilizing existing, or almost-existing, assets to: demonstrate the market for; perform market and physiological research on; serve as pathfinders for legal and regulatory impediments to; and start to shift public and institutional opinion on the viability of; space tourism. Such a study is in keeping with the Sophron Foundation's chartered goal of promoting the increasing development of useful space activity.
This analysis states and considers the general requirements for the development of a robust space tourism business, including both industry (producing vehicles and orbital hotel facilities) and commerce (marketing and providing space tourism services). It focuses on the near term, examining vehicles that are either existing, or in the late stages of development, and matches up their capabilities against those requirements. Specifically, physiological requirements for passengers are preliminarily defined, per discussion with relevant FAA flight surgeons, regulatory, liability, and political issues are identified, and high-end market prospects are preliminarily analyzed.
The prototype of a small orbital spaceplane, needed to trigger this line of development, could be developed in about six years at a cost comparable to one or two flights of the Space Shuttle. It might be possible to progress from this prototype to airline operations within ten years, given a massive development effort.
The first chapter sketches the current situation of the Space Market.
The second chapter outlines the basic requirements of some new financial tools and tax institutes, targeted to involve private investors, worldwide, in the opening of the Space Frontier.
Space activities are considered to provide people with futuristic expectations and dreams of new frontiers. But on the contrary, the reality of space activities is facing a slowdown of national projects in the former Soviet Union and even in the United States. Generally in the world it is difficult to continue ongoing space projects and to extend space commercialization due to financial reasons. Vague expectations and dreams for the future are not enough to justify government funding to continue space activities further.
As part of the Space Tourism Study Program of the Japanese Rocket Society, the passenger vehicle Kankoh-maru has been designed to carry 50 passengers to low Earth orbit, the initial service to be a flight comprising two orbital revolutions. However, it is intended that the services offered will develop progressively, and from market research it is understood that accommodation in orbit is needed in order for the market for space tourism services to reach its full potential.
The need to rendezvous and dock with an orbiting hotel imposes constraints on Kankoh-maru operations, including on the sites from which it can launch, on the frequency and duration of flights, and on propellant requirements. This paper introduces the main factors, and considers the orbital constraints in some detail, making some preliminary estimates for representative cases.
The viewpoint of operating a commercial service is different from traditional launch operations, and much of the detailed information that companies will need to make firm plans is not yet readily available. Consequently the discussion in this paper is somewhat simplified. Nevertheless it is hoped that it will be useful as an introduction to the subject for airline planners who are beginning to consider these services.
In the first phase of the Space Tourism Study Program of the Japanese Rocket Society, the VTOL reference-vehicle "Kankoh-maru" was designed to carry 50 passengers to low Earth orbit. While the initial service was specified to be a flight comprising two orbital revolutions, market research showed that flights to and from accommodation in orbit will be needed in order for the market for space tourism services to reach its full potential.
Recently the idea of space tourism has gained considerably in credibility, with the publication by NASA, the AIAA and Japan's Federation of Economic Organisations (Keidanren) of reports endorsing its feasibility and recognising it as the most promising commercial market in space. As the space hotel business matures, orbital facilities are expected to grow in size and sophistication, as ever more exotic hotels are developed on Earth to attract customers. Various kinds of sports centers are expected to be popular with guests of space hotels, and this paper considers a full- size sports stadium large enough to accommodate major sports events, 100m in length and 60m in diameter.
Such a large structure will be assembled in orbit from components launched in volumetrically efficient packages. The paper discusses the requirements for such a facility, major aspects of the stadium design, and the stadium's relation to the hotel itself. Key topics which need further research are also discussed. The paper concludes that once travel-costs to low Earth orbit fall to less than $20,000/person, such a project will become feasible financially as well as technically.
As the size and longevity of spacecraft increase, so do the hazards posed by orbital debris. Various models have attempted to predict the future debris population and the effects of impacts with spacecraft. The hazard is taken seriously enough that an international dialogue is taking place on how to limit future production of debris. In addition, several new spacecraft, including the international space station ( ISS) and the Teledesic system, are taking defensive measures to minimize damage from such impacts. In the case of the ISS, this includes shielding the inhabited modules, a measure that is expensive, increases system weight, and adds to station launch costs.
A recent NASA study sought to determine the feasibility of removing the threat to low-altitude spacecraft by deorbiting nearly all debris objects of primary concern. This would be accomplished by irradiating the objects with a ground laser, which would ablate a thin surface layer of the debris and cause plasma blowoff. The resulting dynamic reaction would change the object's orbit, decreasing its perigee and causing its rapid reentry. The study, called Orion after the mythological archer, was cosponsored by the USAF Space Command, directed by the author (then at NASA Headquarters), and managed by John Campbell of NASA-Marshall.
This paper is intended to serve as a basis for discussion of both normal and emergency operating procedures for a fully re-usable, piloted, VTOVL (Vertical Take-Off, Vertical Landing), SSTO (Single-Stage-To-Orbit) rocket. The reference vehicle is the "Kankoh-Maru", a transport of approximately 550 tons GLOW (Gross Lift-Off Weight) designed by the Japanese Rocket Society primarily for transport of tourists to and from low Earth orbit (1). As such the paper also illustrates the survivable, savable nature of such a rocket provided that it is designed and operated as if it were an aircraft, based on the safety philosophy developed within the aviation industry over decades of operations.
For this purpose we consider flight procedures for two typical cases, a commercial "airline" flight to and from an orbiting facility, and operation as an all-purpose cargo transport. While many details remain to be determined, a reasonably good picture of Kankoh-maru operations can be drawn. It is clear that, in order to make space transportation routine, a key requirement is the adoption of "aviation philosophy" by designers of reusable launch vehicles.
Abstract - Scenarios that involve high rates of launch traffic offer the possibility of bringing about major reductions in the cost of space transportation and hence of greatly facilitating the expansion of human activities in space. One scenario that has received little serious attention to date is the development of space tourism (i.e. the provision of pleasure trips in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to fare-paying passengers) into a major industry. This paper investigates the feasibility of this idea. First, the range of entertainments that could be provided in Earth-orbiting facilities is discussed, and shown to be extensive. A survey is made of published estimates of the expected demand for space tourism at different prices. and an attempt is made to quantify the overall potential. Second. the feasibility of providing the required services at the prices estimated to be acceptable is examined. Two particular levels of activity are assumed, and the scope for cost reductions through economies of scale and appropriate design are considered. It is argued that space tourism has the potential to provide a commercial justification for the development of fully reusable launch vehicles with low operating-costs.
This paper addresses the role of power from space for use on earth in the next century. It synopsizes the problems associated with our present practices of supplying power for the world in the face of a projected increase in demand and notes the need to reduce the use of fossil fuels. The probable shortfall by the middle of the next century is estimated and options for earth-based and space-based sources of energy are examined. The paper concludes that energy obtained from space is a viable and necessary way of meeting a significant part of the world's needs in the next century. Furthermore, energy from such a source will contribute to these needs in a way that would be gentle to the earth. If this conclusion is valid, then the topic must be placed on the agenda of the world's energy and aerospace communities and promoted as a significant part of what space-faring can do for humankind.
The World Travel Tourism Council estimates that 1995 revenues for tourism worldwide was $3.4 trillion.1 The city of Orlando, Florida has one of the largest tourism centers in the United States, including Walt Disney World, Universal Studios, and Sea World. In a recent economic impact study, Orlando received an economic impact of $13.1 billion in 1995 from theme parks, hotels, restaurants, and shopping centers.2
NASA's 1994 Commercial Space Transport Study points to a potential for great profit for those who would make tourism in space safe and practical. Space tourism would fit into the category of "exotic" or "adventure" vacations. Opportunities such as climbing Mount Everest and taking a world cruise also fit in these categories. "Adventure" tourism for 1993 was $324 billion and growing.3
Several new companies have formed to tap into nascent space tourism market, such as LunaCorp moon rover project,4 but they have had limited success. What space tourism needs is the involvement of a major tourism or entertainment company to legitimize the industry. This abstract will discuss the first steps that company needs to take to spur growth in the space tourism industry. While no single travel agency has the resources to create a new market, there are several major entertainment companies that do. Walt Disney World, MCA/Universal, Paramount, Time/Warner are just a few examples. Any one of these organizations could profit greatly from the public relations stirred up by a space tourism venture.
This paper will discuss two projects which a major entertainment or tourism corporation could get involved in immediately. First, cross-industry communication can be initiated through conferences between leaders of the hotel, tourism, entertainment, aerospace and other industries. Second, the dream of recreational space travel can be brought closer to reality through a phased approach, starting with sponsorship of the X-Prize contest, by developing simulator rides and virtual reality shows based on actual space projects, and soliciting bids for constructing space cruise ships and an orbital hotel.
Since 1993 the Japanese Rocket Society (JRS) has been carrying out its "Space Tourism Study Program". This work has led to the publication of many papers and reports; it has encouraged the growth of related activities; and it is increasingly widely recognised as an important new direction for space development. Work carried out in Japan over the past year leading towards realising passenger space travel services includes the continuation of the JRS Study Program, which has recently been concentrating on regulatory matters; work towards the development of vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) demonstrator vehicles; and commercial and media activities.
When the project enters critical phases (testing, integration, simulation, commissioning), often the scheduling needs conflict with Quality needs, and - against any safe approach - Quality goals are often sacrificed to time schedule.
A significant reduction of the project times is obtained, by good willing designers, by the use of electronics and informatics to handle the very critical phases and project tasks.
Capitalizing the experience of several complex projects, the author derived a methodology based on electronic relational tools, to define and manage the project requirements, test procedures, technical notes and detected problems, input/output signals history and project documents. A complete set of relational tools was conceived and developed, then integrated in a client-server system named Project & Test Engineering System.
This paper aims to describe the methodology, and to give knowledge of the tools.
At the Turin Colloquium in 1997, this author presented a paper entitled Real Property Rights in Outer Space. That paper proposed that interested states establish a form of property rights predicated upon jurisdiction rather than territorial sovereignty, which would be consistent with the terms of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. At the Amsterdam Colloquium in 1999, the author presented a paper entitled Implications of a Proposal for Real Property Rights in Outer Space, which further explained the author's ideas. This paper will set forth the text of a treaty which would implement the author's proposal. The proposed treaty would also further define the jurisdiction conferred under Article VIII of the Outer Space Treaty, with the objective of facilitating the peaceful settlement and development of outer space.
In this paper the author argues that it is now possible to reduce the cost of transportation from earth to low Earth Orbit by about 2 orders of magnitude. He explains why costs have been high until now, why these can be reduced dramatically, and what is now being done in America to do this. He concludes that this development, alone, should greatly improve the prospects of deploying economically viable solar power satellites (SPS) and other space-based systems.
Space tourism has been envisioned since the '60s when Ehricke and Hilton published the idea of travelling to space for no other reason than having fun. Although millions of people worldwide would see a trip into space as the fulfilment of their lifetimes' dreams and would therefore subscribe to such an idea instantly, no action was taken by space agencies to set up adequate opportunities. On the contrary, the men in charge of crewed space programs frequently see space tourism as "only a flight of fantasy".
When Society Expeditions, a leading adventure tourism company, announced in 1985 the beginning of space tours, the idea of space tourism gained new momentum. Especially through the very promising market potential figures Society Expeditions revealed. Several studies have been performed since then considering the impact of space tourism to the aerospace industry. From the very beginning they showed that space tourism has to be seen as a global enterprise, because of the insufficient demand a single country could establish in the early stages of service. So the need for global market research emerged.
This paper presents recent efforts undertaken to determine the market potential of space tourism. It also shows an overall comparison of the results of space tourism market surveys recently performed in Japan, Germany and the USA. In addition, an approach will be presented which leads to the calculation of global demand figures by using data from these market surveys. Based on these figures, the prospects of space tourism with its implications to the aerospace industry will be assessed.
During the summer of 1998, High Frontier's Space Solar Power Advocacy Group (SSPAG) conducted a grassroots campaign using two direct mail techniques to (1) explore various public attitudes toward Space Solar Power (SSP) and (2) determine to what extent a grassroots direct mail education campaign for SSP would be financially self-sustaining.
Among survey respondents, results indicate both a strong base of support for SSP in general and a strong relationship between support for an SSP program and a lack of faith in the future availability of fossil fuel resources from two different perspectives: anticipation of a crisis forcing energy prices sharply upward, and a perceived need to explore alternative forms of energy now, before we begin to run out of the ones we use currently.
While these positive conclusions were reached, a lower-than-expected response rate to the mailings, both in survey returns and donations received, indicate a grassroots campaign as performed in the present study is not financially self-sustainable. High Frontier's future contribution to SSP advocacy, rather, should involve programs with economically efficient outreach programs (background briefings to relevant policymakers, social science and policy-related studies on an as-funded basis, lesson plans for educators available at or near cost, creating a web page and other electronically-distributed materials, etc.)
Government space agencies have the statutory responsibility to support the commercialisation of space activities. NASA's 1998 report "General Public Space Travel and Tourism" concluded that passenger space travel can start using already existing technology, and is likely to grow into the largest commercial activity in space: it is therefore greatly in taxpayers' economic interest that passenger space travel and accommodation industries should be developed. However, space agencies are doing nothing to help realise this - indeed, they are actively delaying it. This behaviour is predicted by 'public choice' economics, pioneered by Professors George Stigler and James Buchanan who received the 1982 and 1986 Nobel prizes for Economics, which views government organisations as primarily self-interested. The paper uses this viewpoint to discuss public and private roles in the coming development of a space tourism industry.
The design of the Lockheed Martin RLV is currently optimized for traditional spacelift missions. For these missions the RLV design objectives such as 7-day vehicle turntimes, $1,000/lb of payload, and 99.6% reliabilities are acceptable. This design may also enable a very limited human presence in space with a correspondingly high price for a ticket.
In this paper we explore a different design approach. We attempt to optimize the design of the RLV so that it can grow to economically and reliably (safely) accommodate a much larger market for human presence in space, space tourism. Market surveys suggest that space tourism, as a full human presence market, will dictate flight rates two orders of magnitude larger than traditional spacelift. The system must also accommodate traditional spacelift for early market and revenue capture.
This paper begins with a discussion of the need for a regime of real property rights in outer space. The author then analyzes the non-appropriation and sovereignty language in Article II of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. In the following sections, the author analyzes the resource appropriation regimes in the Moon Treaty, the Law of the Sea Treaty and in deep sea mining legislation. The paper then discusses the legality of real property rights within and beyond the confines of a space facility. Finally, the paper proposes a regime for real property rights in outer space. This regime would not require nations to establish territorial sovereignty, and is consistent with the provisions and principles of the Outer Space Treaty.
Foreword: Space remains as the last great frontier to be opened to the public. It is tantalizingly close to the entire world's population, yet only a very elite group of men and women have traveled there. Opening the Space Frontier to the Public means overcoming transportation infrastructure problems the first major one being the development of safe, reusable spaceplanes and rocketships. The development challenges involved are enormous and full of tough engineering problems. To turn new technologies into practical designs that can be manufactured and maintained for routine, low cost, operations is proving to be a tremendous undertaking But there are equally tough regulatory processes and procedures to be put into place to govern these developments. Vision, reality and commitment on the part of governments and industries will be required to overcome these challenges and to establish, maintain and regulate an immense and effective new transportation infrastructure for space -- the Spaceways.
The paper describes the "SPS 2000" system currently being designed to operate as a pilot plant delivering 10 MW of microwave power from low Earth orbit to receiving antennas at the Earth‘s surface. Research under way on different aspects of the satellite and the ground segment, and field research under way in a number of equatorial countries is described. A number of issues other than the technical design of the system which are also of importance both in planning the system and in assessing its potential value, are also discussed.
Electric utilities have not yet begun to pay satellite solar power stations (SPS) serious attention as a possibly major new energy source. This is largely due to the fact that there is still very little firm information of the kind that utilities need in order to assess the SPS as a possible candidate for investment. The "SPS 2000" project is designed to provide such information at the lowest possible cost and at the earliest date. It comprises a space segment in low Earth equatorial orbit transmitting photovoltaic-generated microwave power to one or more rectifying antennas ("rectennas") on the equator. These will receive 1 - 10MW of power during each satellite pass, enabling utilities to perform several experiments each day on many different technical and economic aspects of the system's operation. The result will help utilities to calculate the prices that they could profitably offer to satellite operators for commercial supplies of microwave power delivered from space to given specifications.
As part of the Japanese Rocket Society's current feasibility study on space tourism, this paper considers the services that should be offered during the first phase of such a business, namely providing short flights lasting just a few orbits. Companies offering such a service will need to plan several aspects carefully, including selecting orbital flight paths that offer interesting views of Earth, designing convenient seating and window arrangements, providing space for passengers to enjoy weightlessness, and making attractive vehicle interior designs. These considerations will be fed back to the JRS Sub-Committees studying vehicle design and general flight plans for space tourism.
General Dynamics has developed a vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) concept for a single stage to orbit (SSTO) under contract to the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO). This paper briefly describes the configuration and its basic operations. Two key advanced technology areas are then discussed: high-performance rocket propulsion employing a plug nozzle arrangement and Integrated Health Management to facilitate very rapid turnaround between flights more like an aircraft than today's rockets. Our concept combines NASP and ALS/NLS technologies in an innovative way.
For years humanity has dreamed of a clean, inexhaustible energy source. This dream has lead many people to do what, in retrospect, seems obvious, and look upward toward nature's "fusion reactor", the sun. However, while sunlight is clean and inexhaustible (for a few billion years anyway!), it is also dilute and intermittent. These problems led Peter Glaser of the Arthur D. Little Company to suggest in 1968 that solar collectors be placed in geostationary orbit. Such collectors are known as solar power satellites (SPS).
Space activities have been treated quite differently from such international transport industries as air and marine transport, which are governed by national laws and international treaties.
Most of the existing laws and regulations governing space activities were written to make it easier for government to function in space. It is recognized that it is time for us to make- it easier for the private sector to undertake the development of commercial space activities, by reforming the existing legal/regulatory framework mainly consisting of inter-governmental treaties negotiated during the cold war days.
For over a year both NASA and STA have been engaged in a cooperative study. This study addresses the question: "What should the United States do to see a potentially large space tourism business created ?
During the "space age" era, space activities appear increasingly as a theme in Western popular music, as they do in popular culture generally. In combination with the electronics and telecommunications revolution, "pop/rock" music has grown explosively during the space age to become an effectively global culture. From this base a number of trends are emerging in the pattern of influences that space activities have on pop music. The paper looks at the use of space themes and imagery in pop music; the role of space technology in the modern "globalization" of pop music; and current and future links between space activities and pop music culture, including how public space programmes are affected by its influence on popular attitudes.
Over the past half century, taxpayers of the world have paid nearly $1 trillion for civilian space activities, approximately half of this amount being spent on human space flight. If the same investment were made on a commercial basis, it would be generating revenues of several hundred $billions/year, employing more than 10 million people on a permanent basis, and earning tens of $billions/year of profits. However, although telecommunications and broadcasting satellites are now commercially self-sustaining activities they generate some $20 billion/year in revenues, and human space flight activities earn only a few tens of $millions/year.
This paper argues that development of commercial passenger travel services to and from space is the key innovation needed to generate an economic return on the cumulative investment made in space capabilities to date. It is technically feasible using existing technology, and it is expected to grow into a much larger business than satellite communications. In addition it will have important macro-economic impacts by helping to overcome the current global deflation caused by world-wide over-capacity in older industries and insufficient innovation of new ones. Governments currently spend $25 billion/year on civilian space activities, but essentially none of this is aimed at realising passenger space transportation. This paper argues that facilitating the application of space technology to the development of passenger space travel services should be a priority of economic policy.
This document describes a conceptual design for a transportation system which could be built to carry passengers into space for tourism. Its futuristic only in that it has not been built yet. It does not rely on warp drive or any other magic technology, but rather adapts concepts developed or proposed for NASA activities.
The system is based on a "space elevator" and space hotel in low earth orbit. The hotel would orbit 775 miles above the earth, and would suspend a space dock 160 miles above the earth, via a hanging tether. Passengers and cargo would be brought to the dock by a new suborbital reusable launch vehicle, and would travel up the tether via a space elevator. The launch vehicle latches onto the dock, and is carried back to the launch site. The dock moves at only 79% of orbital velocity, which greatly improves the payload capacity of the launch vehicle.
As we look to the future of regular civilian space flight employing reusable rockets to gain access to space, we can parse this future into three distinct developmental epochs.
As tourism activities around the world grow to include more and more varied offerings, the idea of space tourism - members of the public making trips to and from low Earth orbit and beyond - has started to be recognised as a serious possibility. For example, at the October 1997 general assembly of the World Tourism Organization, a report entitled "Tourism 2020 Vision" identified the advent of near-space tourism as one of the trends that will shape the tourism industry in the 21st century.
The subject of space tourism has also recently gained credibility among professional space organisations as a possible means for the commercialisation of space activities. For example, in March 1998 NASA published "General Public Space Travel and Tourism" the Final Report of a joint study with the US Space Transportation Association (STA). This study concluded that space tourism was indeed a realistic possibility; it is likely to start soon; and it will grow larger than all commercial activities in space today (1).
The paper argues that the changes in the world economy over the past few years require the revision of policies concerning government spending on space activities. In particular, due to the severe economic environment and very high levels of unemployment, economic policy requires the development of new industries. Since a growing number of organisations including NASA have acknowledged that passenger space travel services are feasible and will grow into the largest business activity in space, it is very desirable that 'space policy' be revised to focus government spending on realising this possibility.
The assumption is made that reusable launch vehicles will one day approach airliner standards of maturity. They will be able to make several flights per day to and from orbit, and will have a design life of 20 years. Given this assumption, we can postulate a space tourism business with one million or more tourists per year spending a few days in a space hotel at a cost of around $10,000.
The next step towards this goal should be a "re-invented X-15", designed for quick turnaround, and capable of carrying four people. It would be used initially for space research, and after a few years would be certificated for passenger carrying. It would thereby allow a space tourism business, albeit sub-orbital, to be started. This could happen in about seven years, given the required funding. Full orbital tourism could be approaching the $10,000 mature level of cost fifteen years from now. The resulting market is likely to be at least 1 million tourists per year. The immediate requirement is for space tourism to be included in the mainstream space policy agenda.
In his Monday presentation, author and television program leader Patrick Moore referred to the early Greeks and their influence upon the development of astronomy.
And on today's astronaut-cosmonaut panel, astronaut Joe Allen also mentioned the early Greeks.
In similar fashion, let me commence by reading a few sentences from the 1999 edition of "A World History", by William H. McNeill (Oxford University Press; pages 137-8.)
Dreamers about human expansion into space have tended to think in rather lofty terms, such as exploring new frontiers and insuring the survival of our species against planetary disasters. For it to happen in reality, though, someone must be persuaded to finance the effort; and the motivations for doing that may turn out to be a bit closer to home. Imagine the Moon, for example, as a tourist attraction...
With the end of the Cold War, a huge quantity of economic, technological and human resources have been released from military work to be used for more economically productive purposes. However, instead of a "golden age" beginning, in many countries there is a pervasive feeling of uncertainty. With slow economic growth and high and/or rising unemployment, there is widespread concern that global business competition and rationalisation makes increasing unemployment inevitable. The aerospace industry, which earned much of its income from defence work, is undergoing particularly severe restructuring, and millions of people have left the sector.
Yet there are enormous new business opportunities awaiting in the commercial development of space. There is no necessity for present difficulties to develop into a vicious circle of slow growth and unemployment in the rich nations. With appropriate innovation there is a golden age ahead - provided that the industrialised countries advance in the right direction.
In the past the most economically dynamic eras were times when new frontiers were being pioneered - the Roman empire, the British empire, the economic development of the "New World" - or new transport industries were being pioneered - roads, canals, railways, steamships, cars, aeroplanes. Today the technology exists to open the frontier of space; the cost to innovate the reusable launch vehicles needed for this is trivial compared to the scale of modern business or even compared to today's government space expenditures; and market research statistics show that it will be an immensely popular project.
Yet the feasibility of this exciting, prosperous future is not yet widely recognised; space industries are still stuck in the Cold War way of thinking, with government monopoly agencies continuing unprofitable activities at annual enormous cost - instead of vigorously innovating to cut the cost of travel to space and open it to business activities.
While Tito demonstrated the viability of commercial space travel, it is yet to be determined whether the space-tourism industry can now develop into a viable and profitable economic entity. Proponents of developing commercial space travel and related businesses have often served as "their own worst enemies" by relying upon dramatic rhetoric and unsupported assumptions to champion their cause, rather than verifiable, factual, and responsible business planning. To help space business ventures overcome this problem, this paper will suggest ways to create a powerful business plan and presentation, both of which are essential for attracting financing and general business community support. These suggestions focus on key sections of the business plan addressing the specific needs of space tourism and related industries by explaining not only the purpose of the key section and what should be included in it, but also by explaining the steps the business should be taking in the planning stages in order to present a positive and powerful case to financiers and investors.
The true potential of space tourism will be realized when there is a growing market of millions of passengers paying a few thousand dollars, rather than a handful of wealthy individuals paying millions to visit low Earth orbit. A major barrier preventing affordable space access is that proponents of space tourism, while claiming the need for a passenger-certified, cost-effective reusable launch vehicle (RLV), have not fully integrated these new space-transport vehicles into their business plans. For example, these advocates usually only mention that an RLV is the vehicle of choice, rather than explaining what the RLV can do and how the RLV industry can work with the space tourism industry to help secure both as profitable industries. Additionally, the RLV industry initially distanced itself from the space-tourism market, placing its focus on the satellite-launch industry. Fortunately, this is finally changing with the realization of economic potential for space tourism when compared to the limited profitability presented in launching satellites. For the space-tourism market to realize this potential, building a cost-effective passenger RLV must be a priority. Additionally, a strategy for and relationship of cooperation between the RLV and space-tourism industries must be nurtured to effectively build and operate a safe and efficient fleet of RLVs.
Tito is more than just a symbol of momentous progress to the space-tourism industry. As a business and financial expert, he can also provide much-needed industry leadership and energy. While his contribution to space tourism is important, the industry must now do its share to ensure its own successful development. The discussion points and recommendations set forth in this paper are offered to facilitate meeting this challenge. They can also be useful in expediting developmental plans for sending people to Mars in the near future.
As a result of the terrorist attack against the United States on September 11, 2001, the development of space tourism faces additional hurdles not previously considered. While predicting the full range of impact these attacks had upon the industry is not possible at this time, this paper highlights reasons why the development of space tourism should remain a priority, not just for industry advocates, but for all people across the globe. These reasons include the well-documented fact that seeing Earth from space has a positive transformative effect upon the viewers, as well as their circle of friends and associates. Additionally, after forty years in space, nations that were former adversaries are now partnering to strengthen efforts toward space development.
Last year, I went to Florida to see off our Space Shuttle mission, Space Lab-J as an ex-Principal Investigator, and the originator of a medical experiment with carp. On that occasion, I visited Disney World together with my wife. An attraction we chose was a big roller coaster called the Space Mountain. We followed the waiting line for an hour. Then I noticed several senior couples left the line when they reached a sign post. Soon I found it said that persons with any one of the following symptoms may not ride on this vehicle; aged, high blood pressure or lumbago. Those who left the line must have obeyed the warning. I myself suffered from all of them, but didn't care. Fortunately, my wife did not read English. When our turn came, our seats happened to be at the front. It was a great experience in both physical and mental terms. My wife had to rest for thirty minutes afterward to recover from dizziness. I was quite all right and felt proud of the exciting experience.
When I was invited to talk about various issues concerning space transportation for space tourism, I remembered the early aviators called barnstormers. They were veteran pilots who got aeroplanes which were used and disposed of by the government after World War 1. They took to the road with these air planes for acrobatic flight shows and entertainment of passenger flights. It was the good old days of early aeroplanes. Space tourism sounds to me like a revival of such old dreams of flight. Wondering if the Japanese Rocket Society agrees with my idea, I would like to comment on the subject around this theme.
Space tourism is a natural extension of today's worldwide tourism industry. Instead of traveling around the world, tourists go to space. Anyone will be able to buy a ticket. No astronaut training is needed. This has not happened yet, but a lot of activities are taking place in the world today to make it come true.
Space tourism may be the missing link of space travel that we have been trying to discover for so many years. With the help of space tourism, we can build an infrastructure in space and radically decrease the launch costs. There can be hundreds of thousands of space tourists flying each year, creating a giant market. Through this infrastructure, other commercial ventures will also be possible. Space will finally be opened up for business.
The thesis has two objectives. The first objective is to try to discern what importance space tourism may have for space commercialization. The second objective is to provide a detailed overview of the space tourism field. In order to fulfill the objectives, extensive research was conducted on space tourism. This was done through material available at the host institution as well as what could be found on the Internet. Interviews were also conducted with leading people in the space tourism community.
This paper discusses the long-range perspectives for commercial passenger transportation into Low Earth Orbit (LEO): a European Space Tourism Initiative. Southern Spain is introduced as a potential location for Spaceport Europe' from which commercial space trips would be conducted. Based on a market model for a thirty-year time span (2020 to 2050), three different market growth scenarios are developed (no growth; low growth; high growth). These concepts introduce a launch vehicle design which comprises the best features of current European launch vehicle projects (eg SÄNGER, STS-2000) that promise a significant reduction in recurring costs. Technological variables of the transportation system and the infrastructure as well as transportation demand trends have been used as input for an integrated operations and cost model. Computer simulation of passenger transport within the given time span produced cost trends which promise specific transportation costs of as low as $60,000 (1990 values) per seat. Admittedly, such cost figures require very high passenger numbers that might be beyond any real demand.
The paper surveys developments in Japan during the 2 years since the 1st International Symposium on Space Tourism was held in Bremen in March 1997. In particular it describes the activities of the Japanese Rocket Society's three research committees currently involved in its Space Tourism Study Program which was begun in 1993, namely the Transportation Research Committee, the Space Tourism Business Research Committee and the Commercial Space Transportation Legislation Research Committee. The paper also discusses current directions in which work on space tourism, though still controversial, is growing towards realisation.
The "Space Frontier" is the main context of Man in Space for this discussion. In the history of manned space flight, we find that the human population on the new frontier of space increased rapidly in the seventies, but remained almost constant through the eighties and until the present. This stagnation seems to have been caused by the financial difficulties of every national space program. Possible implications of this fact are that the general public, that is taxpayers, have lost interest in supporting the elite space society, but wish to both pay and participate in space activities. The most probable solution to this should be space tourism. Tourism is a big business which can build much larger and cheaper space infrastructure than the space station. It is essential for space tourism that passengers' health and safety are assured by appropriate medical standards. To date, medical science has been used mainly for selection of superman astronauts. On the other hand, in future it will be expected to accept all people as space tour passengers, in cooperation with engineers who develop comfortable space tour vehicles.
Seemingly each month we continue to learn of, and wonder about, new space feats of the Shuttle fleet, science satellites, solar system probes, and the Hubble space telescope.
Against this general background, in 1990 a civil space study Committee of national repute suggested that physical scientific research should be the focal point of the programme -- led by NASA -- and that it could expect to obtain a 10% real growth in publicly-provided financial support each year throughout the decade of the 1990s. 
U.S. civil space leaders accepted both of these suggestions. Unfortunately, both were incorrect and, as a consequence, the programme's support has suffered ever since. 
"Heavier than air flying machines are impossible" said Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society in 1895, just over 100 years ago. A billion air passengers per annum have proved his lordship wrong.
In April 1961, Yuri Gagarin became the first human to venture into Space. In July 1961 he stood in this very building and gave a press conference to over 2000 journalists from around the world. I beg no comparison but intend to follow Yuri, in subject and in going to space myself.
This paper therefore brings together, in an easily accessible basis, a summary of all current and projected future global space markets that were identified and quantified in the NASA ASCENT study managed by the Marshall Space Flight Center during 2001 thru 2003. Even before considering the potential market share of a given spaceport, it is necessary to have this understanding of the global demand projections for the totality of space business. The ASCENT Study considered 42 different market sectors, and still remains the best basis for consolidated global launch vehicle forecasts involving both commercial and governmental markets.
Since 1993 the Transportation Research Committee of the Japanese Rocket Society (JRS) has been conducting a conceptual design study of a vertical takeoff and landing, fully reusable Single-Stage-to-Orbit (SSTO) rocket space tour vehicle for low Earth orbit operation. The vehicle is now called "Kankoh-maru" after the first modern western style steam-ship introduced to Japan in the Edo-era about 140 years ago.
The JRS Study Program is now in its third phase, studying design requirements and standards for technical certification of space tour vehicles. The committee has first reviewed the existing Japanese aviation regulations applied to passenger aircraft and helicopters approved by the civil aviation bureau of the Japanese Ministry of Transportation. The surveyed issues are flight characteristics, strength, structure, propulsion, equipment and operation.
There are many issues to be reconsidered and added for an orbital vehicle operated with rocket propulsion. The takeoff and landing procedure is one of the critical items that is very different from that of aircraft and helicopters in the matter of abort capability. The vehicle design must also take the specific environmental conditions into account, such as orbital temperature, vacuum, meteoroid, space radiation, cryogenic temperature of propellants and aerodynamic heating during reenty, in order to protect passengers and ground safety.
The safety standards for the new concept of "spaceworthiness" will play an important role for manufacturers supplying commercial space tour vehicles. This activity of the JRS is unique and is expected to promote space commercialization.
This paper is the result of a preliminary study of the operation of a space transportation system to be used for space tourism. The prospective carriers are single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) vehicles which take-off and land vertically. Assuming that airports used for general aviation are used as spaceports for this purpose, we have conceptualized the turnaround operation of the vehicle, and the facilities and equipment required for the transportation system. We have also analyzed the general characteristics of the requirements and constraints of airports, such as propellant supply and location of departure facilities resulting from noise regulations. As a result, four issues have been identified. Firstly, special take-off and landing areas are required for each vehicle. Secondly, the space vehicles should be designed to satisfy the economic requirement to use existing airport ground support equipment. Thirdly, it is necessary to reduce noise levels of rocket vehicles by one order of magnitude. And finally, the choice of propellant production and transportation depends on the airport location and the frequency of flights.
Previous papers have examined the physical differences between natural and artificial gravity, through mathematical derivation and computer simulation. Taking those differences as given, this paper examines: the role of gravity in architectural design; the extensions of architectural theory necessary to accommodate the peculiarities of artificial gravity; and the appropriateness of space colony architecture as illustrated in the "Stanford Torus", "Bernal Sphere", and similar proposals. In terrestrial gravity, there are three principal directions - up, down, and horizontal - and three basic architectural elements - ceiling, floor, and wall. In artificial gravity, due to inertial effects of relative motion in a rotating environment, east and west (prograde and retrograde) emerge as gravitationally distinct. Thus, there are not only three, but at least five principal directions: up, down, east, west, and axial. The grammar of architecture for artificial gravity should accommodate this fact. To be meaningful, architecture should have formal properties that are similar to other aspects of the environment. The goal is not to fool people into thinking they're still on Earth, but rather, to help them orient themselves to the realities of their rotating environment.
TODAY I AM GOING TO SPEAK ABOUT (A) WHY, FOR SEVERAL REASONS, IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT WE NOW FOCUS CIVIL SPACE ATTENTION UPON THE IDENTIFICATION AND CREATION OF A VERY LARGE SPACE TOURISM BUSINESS, AND (B) MAKE SOME SUGGESTIONS AS TO HOW WE CAN BEGIN TO GO ABOUT DOING SO.
To date the space age has not fulfilled the vision of the early space engineers and science fiction writers who described a future in which large numbers of people work and live in space, both near Earth and elsewhere in the solar system. More than thirty years after the first satellite launch, barely two hundred people have visited space, at a cost of around $100 million per person. It is even argued that space exploration will forever be performed mainly by automated vehicles. However, the development of fully re-usable launch vehicles over the next twenty years will greatly reduce the cost and danger of launches, and will greatly widen public access to space. On some scenarios as many as one million people could visit space on a commercial basis within twenty-five years. The economic implications of such a development are very significant both for the space iridustry and for the global economy.
The paper is composed of three sections:
In order to attract investors from the capital markets, the cost of capital for a space tourism venture has to be quantified and qualifying financing models have to be set up. This leads to the two really significant terms for investors, namely those of Net Present Value (NPV) and Cost of Capital. In order to derive the latter, this paper uses a comparables method to estimate the business risk index (Beta) for a typical future space tourism operation. This results in a relatively high cost of capital of 17.6% (!); compared to the 6% which had been used for earlier evaluations of space tourism.Then the paper goes on to apply this cost figure to some existing business scenarios in order to derive the NPVs of typical space tour ventures. As can be seen in the results, the high cost of capital represents a significant challenge for the sophistication and professionalism of future business plans and financial models. Based on a concluding sensitivity analysis and on some recent experiences from ongoing commercial space projects, some lessons learned are presented. If applied properly, these will help to make space tourism economically viable.
The general framework of a public space travel business is discussed, including technical, terrestrial infrastructure, marketing/packaging, regulatory and insurance issues, etc., and this framework explicitly addresses the two distinct kinds of opportunity that are being developed as the initial offerings of space tourism - namely sub-orbital and orbital flights. There is a discussion of possible and proposed architectures.
Data is provided from the Futron/Zogby Survey into Public Space Travel, a very robust and comprehensive fund of market data obtained by interviewing high net worth individuals. The data addresses public interest in both sub-orbital and orbital flight opportunities, and forecasts are provided that derive likely numbers of travelers at various price levels during the next twenty years, and hence form an essential backdrop to any business plan for the sector.
Finally, the paper looks forward a further 80 years towards 2103, and describes a possible series of further developments in public space travel that will be likely to take place in that timeframe. Many of them have already been studied qualitatively as possible emerging markets in the ASCENT Study conducted by Futron Corporation for NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. These potential developments include, inter aliai, space hotels, geo-stationary and/or Lagrangian Point space outposts, and even tourist trips into Lunar orbit.
Nowadays, it is evident that airlines' future looks vague. Aircraft vehicles are at a stagnant point, where new designs are limited and only modifications of older designs exist. Engines have reached a point where further development is too time and money consuming to bother. New destinations are limited and volumes of traffic control are increasing dangerously. Maintenance costs increase, whereas ticket prices remain stagnant or decrease. Research is undertaken in order to improve the current situation but nothing innovative comes out. Only improvements and modifications of already existent hardware and infrastructure happen.
The development of a new concept might be able to improve the situation in airlines and tourism, in a worldwide level, in general. Space Tourism is still in the cradle, trying hard to develop. It is a concept that is starting to evolve and attract attention day by day. However, it is quite important to review whether the whole attitude towards Space Tourism in the airline industry is positive or negative.
After careful considerations, a large survey regarding Space Tourism among the world's best 100 airlines was undertaken. The survey was conducted over a period of 3 months, from August 1998 to November 1998. A questionnaire together with an information pack was sent to the airlines. The airlines had a choice of methods for responding to the questionnaire. The replies from the questionnaires were quite interesting. Most of the airlines that replied were quite interested in the concept, while others showed a lack of interest for the whole process. The results from the questionnaire were quite positive, leaving excellent hopes for the future.
The results of the questionnaire are currently on printing, and without doubt will be a surprise to many people in the Tourism industry and specifically in the Airline sector.
Recently there has been major progress towards overturning the myth that launch costs are high because of inescapable physical limits, as companies are planning sub-orbital flights at 0.1% of the cost of Alan Shepard's similar flight in 1961. Market research shows strong demand for both sub-orbital flights and orbital services. Travel to the Moon will offer further unique attractions: in addition to its allure arising from millennia of mythology in every country, bird-like flying sports will surely become a powerful demand factor.
The paper also explains that, far from being an activity of minor economic importance, the progressive growth of tourism services from sub-orbital flights through lunar tourism, will contribute greatly to economic growth on Earth and create new employment on a large scale, in the same way as the development of tourism in Hawaii has enriched the US mainland and elsewhere.
Since the beginning of the 1960s, space tourism has been investigated world-wide. NASA has just finished a space tourism feasibility study in co-operation with the Space Transportation Association with promising results. In Japan, different space tourism scenarios are investigated in the context of industrial research for about 10 years with respect to the transportation and accommodation of tourists. In Europe and Germany, space hotel concepts are investigated and several studies analyse future advanced low cost space transportation systems which represent the key technology to make future space tourism affordable for the public. This wide variety of studies indicates, that space tourism is considered to have a considerable economic potential in the mid to long-term. Currently, tourism on Earth represents one of the biggest industrial sectors with an annual market volume of about $3400 Billion (estimate for the year 1995). If it would be possible to shift only a few percent from this amount to a future space tourism market, the size of the global civil space industry could be doubled (for comparison: presently, the global, civil, governmental space budgets amount to about $30 Billion). In this context it is notable, that initial national and international market research analyses indicate, that e.g. 4.3% of the Germans are willing to spent an annual salary for a holiday-trip into space (several $10000). Because of the presently very high space transportation costs in the order of several $10 Million, space tourism will not be feasible in the short-term due to the fact that it is not affordable. However, suborbital flights - perhaps already in the next decade - could represent precursor activities which allow a short stay in space by ascending vertically into space or by landing after one Earth orbit at the departure airport. In this case, the target "ticket prices" are in the range of $10.000 to $100000 comparable in the best case with a Concorde flight from Europe to America. Furthermore, this study presents possible future space transportation concepts of the next generations, which have a significant cost reduction potential and could allow a "space-ticket" price into Earth orbit in the range of a few $100000. These space transportation systems are fully reusable and have very high launch rates, comparable to the operation of present aircraft-fleets within the commercial airline business. The $1 billion effort of NASA's X-33 development program also aims in this direction. Furthermore, this study discusses the economic feasibility of future tourism on the Moon and Mars and presents the Space Hotel Berlin and Space Hotel Europe concepts, which allow the accommodation of about 50 tourists. TheSpace Hotel Berlin concept is mainly based on existing technologies by the use and integration of modified habitation modules (e.g. derived from COF) from the International Space Station to a ring-shaped structure. By rotating this ring-structure at different velocities, a wide variety of artificial gravity levels can be achieved. First economic analyses show that in the case of a 100% capacity utilisation, one overnight stay in the Space Hotel Berlin (without the transportation of tourists from Earth) would cost about $100000. Finally the fascinating entertainment opportunities of future space tourism are outlined.
A revolution in the way we operate in space is imminent. Within the limitations of technical forecasting, it is highly likely that passenger flights to space will start within a decade. The cost of operating space stations and of sending people to orbit will be reduced by about one thousand times within 15 years.
The revolution will involve replacing launchers based on ballistic missiles by those based on aeroplanes. Ballistic missiles have the major disadvantage that they can fly once only. This is the fundamental cause of the high cost and risk of present spaceflight. Spaceplanes could have entered service some twenty five years ago, but NASA had alternative priorities. Technology is now such that a sub-orbital spaceplane is within the scope of a small aerospace company.
The logic behind these forecasts is simple and robust. It has been well publicised and is supported by a growing number of people in the field. It is not widely appreciated because it is not in line with the present policies of NASA and ESA.
The paper explains the arguments behind these predictions, and describes a straightforward project that would enable the UK to take the lead in setting up the new spaceplane industry.
Since 1993 the Japanese Rocket Society has been carrying out a formal study program to determine how to establish a commercial service providing visits to low Earth orbit for fare-paying passengers (1, 2). Following the completion of the first phase of the study in 1995 with the publication of a report on the design of the "Kankoh-maru" SSTO VTOL passenger vehicle (3), a second phase of the study has recently been completed, including estimating Kankoh-maru's development and manufacturing costs, studying its operation from airports and potential business development scenarios, and considering requirements for accommodation facilities in orbit, and safety and regulatory issues. A third phase of the study has now begun.
In 1993 the Japanese Rocket Society started a formal study program to determine how to establish a commercial service providing visits to low Earth orbit for fare-paying passengers. This subject was chosen because none of the government space agencies was studying how to reduce the cost of passenger travel to orbit. The subjects studied initially included the services that should be provided, the design of a reference vehicle, its propulsion system and large-scale propellant supply. After the publication of the design of the "Kankoh-maru" SSTO VTOL passenger vehicle, a second phase of the study was started, including estimating Kankoh-maru's development and manufacturing costs, its operation from airports, requirements for accommodation facilities in orbit, potential business development scenarios, and safety and regulatory issues. A third phase of the study is currently being planned to begin after the second phase reports are published.
Existing national and international laws provide a rudimentary framework for commercial activities and settlement in outer space and on celestial bodies. Although we have limited experience with activities outside of space vehicles or enclosed facilities, it is possible to analyze how existing laws will be applied to activities such as mining, manufacturing and construction. One can also conclude that private settlement of outer space and celestial bodies is legal under existing law. Nonetheless, the paucity or outright absence of law regarding certain key subjects such as property rights, mining, salvage, liability, and dispute resolution is a disincentive to private space activities. Individuals, companies and investors are unsure of their rights and have no assurance that their efforts and investments will be legally protected. There is much that national governments can do to encourage private space activities through international agreements and national legislation. This article discusses the existing legal regime and proposes new laws and treaties which would encourage private space activities.
The potential for commerce in outer space is enormous. Although space commerce thus far has been limited to the satellite and launch industries, other New Space Industries (NSIs) are in the offing. Space tourism and entertainment, manufacturing, business parks, R&D, satellite repair and transfer services, space debris removal-these are just a few of the industries with long-range commercial outer-space potential. Crucial to the success of these NSIs is identifying the likely sources of their investment capital and overcoming the obstacles to their financing.
I was introduced as the first fare-paying passenger to travel to space. But I would like to add a few comments about this view. In the case of the Space Shuttle, satellite companies that are the customers pay for Shuttle missions to launch their satellites, which usually include expenses required for payload specialists who go to space accompanying the satellites. In my case, the main mission that I accompanied was a broadcasting business project instead of a satellite launch. In this respect, I was not the first fare-paying passenger in space, but rather my flight was unique because it was a private enterprise outside the space industry.
This paper considers the prospects for delivering electric power from space to Earth on a large scale. In order to provide the world population with average electricity supplies of 1 kW capacity per head during the 21st century, an average of some 100 GW of new capacity would have to be installed each year. To achieve this using existing electricity generation technology is probably not possible. One approach that may be feasible is the delivery of electricity from "satellite solar power stations" (SPS) in space to microwave power receiving antennas (rectennas) on Earth. It is concluded that if the "SPS 2000" pilot plant and "Delta Clipper" reusable launch vehicle projects achieve their stated cost goals, SPS may be able to supply competitive electric power to Earth on the necessary scale.
Since the US Department of Energy finished its SPS Concept Development and Evaluation Program in 1981, research on satellite solar power stations has received very little funding from energy research organizations around the world. The main reason for this has been the perception that electricity delivered to Earth from orbiting solar power stations would be too expensive, due to the very high cost of space activities. During the 1990s work within the space industry on developing reusable launch vehicles in order to sharply reduce launch costs has grown considerably. Since the cost of space activities depends primarily on the cost of access to space, this is very encouraging for the prospects of SPS systems. The potential implications of this work for both near-term SPS pilot plants and longer term commercial SPS systems are discussed.
It is a great pleasure to have the opportunity to address this conference, which has established itself as a key venue for those with an interest in the future of the space industry. It is unfortunate that economists' comments are not always welcome at space industry conferences - because we tend to ask rather pointed questions like "Is this activity worth doing?" But it is important for someone to 'say it like it is' since this can reduce waste, improve policies and thereby contribute to economic growth. And, to put it bluntly, space has a very poor economic record: with very high costs, very low revenues, and taxpayers around the world providing $25 billion every year to cover the endless 'red ink'. I believe we can change this: space can become a booming, popular and profitable area of business - a jewel of the world economy instead of a black hole. But that needs appropriate policies, which are emphatically not being followed today. To find the right model for space policy, a historical perspective is useful.
This paper discusses some of the more plausible NSIs and what is needed for the overall success of new and emerging commercial space ventures. In addition, an attempt is made to gauge the full impact of the aftermath of 9/11, the recession, and the war on terrorism upon a newly developing and expanding commercial space industry. The effect of current launch costs upon the developing space industry is also considered including whether the payload consists of cargo or humans to orbit, and the payload destination. Business planning, including the financing of space ventures, is also discussed.
Serious discussion of the possibility of space travel by "ordinary people", i.e., people other than professional astronauts, has been underway for the past four decades.
Originally it was thought that our civil space program would undertake activities that would see this possibility realized. And, indeed, we did see one of our Senators, a Congressman and an Arabian prince take a trip to space. In parallel, two private persons, one from the United Kingdom and one from Japan, traveled to/from the Russian space station MIR.
However, the government pace was slow, and in the mid-1980's a few small companies were formed in the United States that began to explore the possibility of creating viable private sector space tourism enterprises.
The paper discusses the long-range perspectives of commercial passenger transportation into Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Based on a market model for the timespan from 2001 to 2050, different market growth scenarios are developed. These introduce five different launcher concepts which represent future trends in space technology and promise a significant reduction in recurring costs. Technological variables of the different transportation systems and transportation demand trends had been used as input for an integrated operations and cost model. Computer simulation of passenger transport within the given timespan produced cost trends which are significantly different from those of earlier studies. Finally, suggestions for financing and organizing a commercial passenger transportation service to LEO are made.
Full reusability, combined with intact abort capability during all phases of flight, will have a profound effect on the development certification and operation of space launch vehicles. Because these future space transport vehicles will be fully reusable and have the ability for intact abort, their development, certification and operation will have much more in common with aircraft than expendable launch vehicles (ELVs).
The cost of launch facilities is a major part of the cost of development of new launch systems. Increasingly, commercial space transport vehicles will be most cost-effective if they can operate from simple launch bases. To achieve this goal, the design philosophy behind a new concept in space transport vehicles, called the ROTON(tm), is discussed.
ROTON is a single stage (SSTO) rocket system powered by a number of small liquid-propellant rocket engines attached to the tips of a large diameter rotor blades. Pumping pressure at the rotor tip is supplied by rotational forces of the rotor. At liftoff, the rocket engines are aligned parallel to the ground, with the rotor providing most of the liftoff thrust, while the rocket engines are operating at only a small fraction of their rated thrust. As the vehicle climbs, the engines are aligned with the flight directional axis of the vehicle, and remain in this position until orbital velocity is achieved. Upon re-entry, the rotor may provide both lifting and drag forces, and also permits low velocity, controllable approaches to the landing field. Landing is in a vertical orientation, the same as liftoff.
Benefits of this technical approach will be discussed, including the elimination of the need for a fixed launch stand or blast deflector, since no rocket exhaust impacts the ground. The suitability of the ROTON for both space cargo delivery and space tourism will be presented, along with the requirements for ground support facilities.
The commercialization of outer space has accelerated recently. It is estimated that "by the year 2000, commercial space activity may be worth as much as $200-300 billion" to the U.S. national economy "and maybe as many as 10 million jobs". The internal as well as international regulation of such commercial space activities must be given priority. At international level we should consider the regulation of commercial space activities under the aspect of legality and of jurisdiction. At internal level, we should consider three improtant problemes; inventions in space, product liability and governmental aid in space industrialization.
In order for reusable launch vehicles and orbital accommodation facilities to provide passenger services in space on a commercial basis, a number of regulatory changes are needed, both national and international. New rules are needed for certification of rocket-powered passenger vehicles and their operation and maintenance. In addition, space law today is based on cold-war treaties which are inappropriate for commercial activities. When the regulatory environment is made more attractive, companies will be able to plan commercial passenger services in space, gaining economic advantage for those countries which lead in these reforms.
The intuitively obvious way to get to orbit is to build a rocket ship that will go there, fly around in space, and return to Earth for refueling and reuse. It's what Buck Rogers did. This is so obviously the 'right way' that people have to be taught why we don't do it.
Explaining why we have not yet built that kind of ship, and why we can and ought to build one now, is going to take a little work. Not a lot. Fortunately the math is simple: there's only one actual equation in this paper. It's presented in a couple of forms, but it's still only one equation, and it's a pretty simple one. It's called the classical rocket equation, and studying it can teach us a lot about what has happened to the space program. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to follow the argument.
The settlement of space would benefit all of humanity by opening a new frontier, energizing our society, providing room and resources for the growth of the human race without despoiling the Earth, and creating a lifeboat for humanity that could survive even a planet-wide catastrophe.
Unfortunately, it seems clear that, as things stand now, space settlement will not happen soon enough for any of us to see it. However the legislation proposed here would:
Over the past few years the general perception of space tourism has changed from being considered "science fiction" to becoming recognised as an important new target for the space industry. This change has been stimulated in part by the Space Tourism Study Program of the Japanese Rocket Society (JRS), which led to the development of a scenario that has received general consensus: if some $12 billion of funding became available in the near future, commercial passenger space travel services to and from Earth orbit could begin in 2010. At a growth rate of some 100,000 passengers/year/year the business could reach 700,000 passengers/ year by 2017, at a price of about $25,000 /passenger.
The importance of this result is that $12 billion is less than half of one year's funding of government space agencies today, and it is therefore readily affordable. The paper extrapolates the JRS scenario to the year 2030, based on market research results. By that time space tourism activities could have grown to a scale of $100 billion/year, creating several million jobs. It thereby demonstrates the very great economic value of such a development - approximately $1 trillion greater than the value of continued taxpayer funding of space agencies' activities without developing space tourism. The paper also discusses the potentially critical importance of this new industry in maintaining economic growth in the world economy against the deflationary pressures caused by excess capacity in older industries, and inadequate investment in new ones.
The present international space law has been a system which generally concentrates on the exploration and use of outer space. In the near future, however, new outer space usage with different styles and purposes from the present situation will be imaginable. This usage includes the private sector's space activities with commercial purposes and the emergence of passengers (tourists) who will go to outer space for leisure. Those new styles of space utilization may bring the present legal system (the first generation of space law), which mainly treat the exploration and use of outer space by the public sector, its review and reconsideration. We now have to make a tentative plan about the future legal system applicable to the future outer space utilization (the second generation of space law), paying attention to and understanding the possibility of space technologies, socio-econornic factors and so on. This paper will propose the need for such consideration by focussing on the problems of the status of astronauts as one of the problems to be resolved.
The technology needed to avert comet or asteroid impact is similar to that needed to recover the essentially unlimited resources contained in these bodies. Thus it is desirable to develop asteroidal resources, both to achieve wanted outcomes (namely space industrialisation, species security, and long term prosperity) and to build the capacity to avert disaster.
This paper reviews concepts for mining the Near-Earth Asteroids for supply of resources to future in-space industrial activities. It discusses a standard approach for carrying out Technical and Economic Feasibility Studies on proposals for asteroid resource recovery projects.
Next consider April the first 2001. Almost one hundred and sixty years later and Dennis Tito is sitting in a similarly unfamiliar hunk of metal - this time it is a Russian space rocket. Not only are there people cheering from the ground, there are people around the world watching in (www.space.com). Tito is crammed into a tiny space module aware that his place in history is assured. As thousands of tons of complex fuels explode, forcing downwards, the rocket lifts. A new age is upon us - the age of space tourism, Dennis Tito will be the first tourist in space (The Guardian: 1).
These moments are undeniably key within the history of modern leisure tourism. Yet they seem not only distant in time but also in concept. I shall investigate the relative properties of each of these moments, aiming to see if they are really all that different. I shall not be swayed by the obvious differences or romantic similarities, instead I shall weigh them up and attempt to arrive at a sensible conclusion.
Differential throttling of rocket engines for a high performance vehicle such as rocket powered SSTO is studied. For both powered ascent and landing of a vertical landing rocket vehicle, taking into account the attitude motion of the vehicle in atmospheric flight, the necessary restoring moments are evaluated. These were converted to the throttling requirement for each engine in terms of both static and dynamic characteristics, and rocket firing tests were carried out. Engine throttling was done by control of the hot turbine working fluid. Stable static throttling capability was demonstrated from 30 % to 100 % of its maximum thrust level. The frequency response of the engine thrust modulation was investigated and the correspondence between the simulation-model derived dynamic response and the real behavior was verified. Finally closed-loop engine thrust control by connecting a pressure signal from the engine combustion chamber to the throttling valve was tested for better dynamic response. The expected improvement was achieved in the frequency range concerned. As a result of the study, good controllability for attitude control by applying differential thrust of the primary propulsion was demonstrated.
The potential market for liquid oxygen produced at the lunar surface for use by passenger launch vehicles and accommodation facilities in low Earth orbit (LEO) is estimated. It is concluded that oxygen may be the first major commercial lunar export, and so low Earth orbit tourism is potentially very important for lunar development.
A good reason for studying the subject of commercial space travel is because most people, when asked, say that they would like to take a flight to orbit. Normal commercial industries, when they discover a service that is apparently so popular with the public, make considerable efforts to commercialize it. However, to date, this desire has had little influence on the space industry, which performs almost exclusively government activities.
In recent years it has become increasingly widely accepted, including within Nasa, that the largest commercial opportunity in space is the development of passenger space travel, or 'space tourism'. However, to date, the British government has provided no support whatever for work in this field. In 2000 the parliamentary Trade and Industry Select Committee criticised this unsatisfactory situation, but their comments have been disregarded to date. This paper reviews the current situation and discusses measures that must be implemented in order for British taxpayers to obtain the greatest economic benefit from the government's space expenditure.
As human activities in space expand in coming years, the density of near-earth traffic may reach a level at which there will become a significant hazard from collisions between operational spacecraft. Before this occurs there will be a need for international agreements aimed at reducing the chances of collisions between spacecraft. Two particular scenarios are considered under which the density of orbital traffic could increase very substantially beyond present levels within this century, namely the development of satellite power stations (SPS), and the development of orbital tourist facilities. The paper considers the possibilities for the introduction of certain traffic systems for near-earth space, both from a theoretical and from an institutional point of view, and proposes some simple means of reducing the collision hazard in relation to the SPS and Space Tourism scenarios.
A fully reusable SSTO (Single Stage to Orbit) rocket vehicle of vertical takeoff and landing type has been conceptually designed as a standard transportation model for space tourism by the transportation research committee of JRS (Japanese Rocket Society). The design criteria of the vehicle have been assumed based on the services required for space tourism. The standard vehicle is operational for a maximum 24 hour space tour of 50 passengers in low earth orbit. Within the reach of our near future rocket technology, the design results in 22m body length and weight of 550 Mg using MMC, CF/Epy and Ti/Mw advanced materials. The 12 engines, which can be throttled and gimbaled during the whole mission time, perform vertical launch and tail-first reentry to final landing within tolerable acceleration acting on passengers. Two floor decks with sightseeing windows and a microgravity amusement space are provided as an attractive passenger service.
Of all the people who have traveled to space, almost all have been professional astronauts -- fewer than a half-dozen have been "ordinary people". The Shuttle has carried a Senator, a Representative and an Arabian Prince; a schoolteacher was killed during such a trip. Two private individuals have been carried to the Russian space station MIR, one from the United Kingdom, the other from Japan.
These numbers stand in sharp contrast to the number of people who have expressed an interest in taking a space trip:
One of the uses that has been proposed for fully reusable launch vehicles is "space tourism", the making of short visits to low Earth orbit by fare- paying passengers. This seems to offcr the potential to generate a large commercial market, of the order of tens of launches per day, which is needed to amortize the development cost of a new generation of launch vehicles.
Once such businesses arc established, it seems likely that orbiting hotels will be developed to enable guests to enjoy a variety of entertainments in Earth orbit. One feature of such hotels will be spacious rooms providing guests the opportunity to enjoy "zero gravity".. This paper considers three different types of "sports center", which offer a wide range of possible entertainments. The design of these centers is considered, together with their costs and commercial potential. Overall, once launch costs fall sufficiently for space tourism to become commercially feasible, such sports centers seem likely to become attractive commercial investments.